Buffalo-Under 5.5 wins
After 6 wins last year, the team is still a mess. Against a tough schedule, they will have a tough time getting back to 6.
Chicago-Over 8 wins
They won 7 last year and absolutely everything went wrong. This year the oline can only play better. The defense is bolstered by Peppers and Urlacher.
Cincinnati-Over 8 wins
This is a team that won 10 games last year, despite suffering a rash of injuries on defense over the last few weeks. After a disastrous playoff performance by the second string defense, the hate has gone too far.
Cleveland-Under 5.5 wins
They won 5 last year, they won't top that against what may be the toughest schedule in the league. They also plan to play Jake Delhomme at quarterback.
Denver-Under 7 wins
This team finished 2-6 down the stretch. Since then, they have lost their best player on each side of the ball. The schedule is easy but that won't be enough.
Houston-Over 8 wins
8-8 last year and lost 4 games because of missed chip shots and goal line fumbles. Those problems have been fixed.
Jacksonville-Under 7 wins
Division is too tough and they aren't any better than the 7-9 team we saw last year.
Miami-Over 8.5 wins
Things seem to be in place for Miami, who will need to improve on last year's seven to win the division. They added a top talent at a position of dire need.
New York Jets-Under 9.5 wins
The Jets, a 500 team last year, won't top that win total against this murderer's row schedule unless two more teams lay down for them at the end.
Oakland-Over 6.5 wins
The schedule is too easy for them not to top this. They won 5 last year and made a big improvement at the most important position.
Pittsburgh-Under 9 wins
9-win team with Big Ben last year. How have they improved? Starting out 1-3 won't help them get back to 9.
San Diego-Over 11 wins
Won 13 last year and face the easiest schedule in the NFL. Improved running game as well.
Tennessee-Over 8.5 wins
The opposite of Denver, this team won 8 last year after tossing the first 6. They should top 8 by playing all 16.
Tampa-Under 5.5 wins
Not a lot of wins on this schedule for a team that has so little on both sided of the ball.
Washington-Over 7.5 wins
The biggest jump from 4 wins, but they made the most improvements.
Now the teams that I stake my claim on.
Green Bay-Over 10 wins
In position to be the class of the NFC. They aren't going down from last year's 11-5. 14 wins is more likely than 9.
San Francisco-Over 8.5 wins
This is cake, 8-8 last year and going up against an NFC easiest schedule. Throw in a full year of Alex Smith and a potentially healthy Gore, and SF gets 9 in their sleep.
For posterity, here's the rest of the league.
Arizona- 7.5 from 10
Atlanta-9 from 9
Baltimore-10 from 9
Carolina-7.5 from 8
Dallas-10 from 11
Detroit-5 from 2
Indianapolis-11 from 14
Kansas City-6.5 from 4
Minnesota-9.5 from 12
New England-9.5 from 10
New Orleans-10.5 from 13
New York Giants-8.5 from 8
Philadelphia-8.5 from 11
Seattle- 7 from 5
St Louis-4.5 from 1
For kicks, division winners
Made my super bowl pick in February and I'm sticking with it, even though everyone seems to be jumping on the bandwagon. Green Bay-Indianapolis.