Monday, July 27, 2009

Predraft thoughts !

Ive done a few mocks now, and there are some very interesting developments that have some major strategy implications. The to receivers are going very early, and Portis, Westbrook and to some extent Jacobs, are dropping. I've gotten Westbrook at the end of the second round in every draft. This makes it possible to get two top backs. Moreover, its possible to obtain Steve Smith, Reggie Wayne and Boldin in the early third. The beginning of the third is potentially stacked, with Portis, Manning and Boldin, all sitting there. Its an embarrassment of riches.

As I've said before, there isn't that much difference between the top 7 receivers, so why not wait for Boldin in the third. Boldin was the best wr in football before he broke his face. Everyone got really excited by Fitzgerald in the playoffs last year but Boldin was the better fantasy bet last year. Sure, if given a choice, I'd take Fitzgerald, but he's going sixth and Boldin is going in the 30s. (even potentially a 4th rounder)

I'd be tempted by taking Manning in that spot(and did once) but when you also look at how low Rodgers, Rivers and Cutler(very surprising low) It still makes sense to wait and grab one of them after two feature backs, Boldin, and one of VJackson or ABryant. Cutler is going so low its not even fair.

Speaking of ABryant, I thought more people would be jumping on the bandwagon after last year but they aren't. He is still a potential sixth round bargain.

Back to rbs, Houston never found another back, so Slaton has more value than I anticipated. I would put him at the edge of the first tier now, but not ahead of the three slipping backs, so the point is moot. He repeatedly goes about 10th, several spots ahead of Jacobs even. Jackson at sixth is mystifying. Whats the difference between Jackson and Addai who goes in the 50s? They're both injury prone and Addai is the one on a team that will get into the redzone regularly and wont be trailing every second half, and has an improved offensive line. Addai is an absolute steal as a third rb, a spot his high upside is perfect for.