Monday, September 26, 2011

Week 4 Picks

Super Contest (9-5-1)

Giants over Cardinals
Vikings over Chiefs
Bears -7.5 over Panthers
Redskins over Rams
Chargers -8 over Dolphins

All Picks (24-14-1)

Packers -14.5 over Broncos
Titans over Browns
Cowboys over Lions
Colts +11 over Bucs
Texans -4 over Steelers
Falcons - 4 over Seahawks

Monday, September 19, 2011

Week 3 Picks

Supercontest (7-2-1)

49ers +1 over Bengals
Dolphins +3 over Browns
Lions -4 over Vikings
Falcons -1 over Bucs
Chargers -15 over Chiefs

All Picks (17-7-1)

Texans +4.5 over Saints
Rams +3.5 over Ravens
Panthers -3.5 over Jaguars
Giants +9 over Eagles
Raiders +3.5 over Jets
Broncos +7 over Titans
Steelers - 11 over Colts
Seahawks +3.5 over Cardinals
Cowboys -4.5 over Redskins

Monday, September 12, 2011

Week 2 Picks

Supercontest (5-0)

Dallas -3 over San Francisco
Houston -2.5 over Miami
Washington -4 over Arizona
Detroit -8 over Kansas City
Philadelphia -1 over Atlanta

All Picks (12-2)

Chicago +7 over New Orleans
San Diego +9 over New England
Pittsburgh -12.5 over Seattle
Green Bay -10 over Carolina
Tennessee +4 over Baltimore
New York Giants - 5.5 over St Louis

Monday, September 5, 2011

Week 1 Picks

Top 5 Picks

Each week I will classify 5 picks as if I was in the Hilton Supercontest

Detroit +3 over Tampa
Dallas +4.5 over New York Jets
Green Bay -4 over New Orleans
Oakland +3 over Denver
Phlly -4.5 over St Louis

Other picks

Pittsburgh +2.5 over Baltimore
Buffalo +7 over Kansas City
Houston -7 over Indy
New York Giants - 3 over Washington
New England -7 over Miami
Carolina +8 over Arizona
Chicago +2.5 over Atlanta
San Francisco -5.5 over Seattle
Cincinnati +7 over Cleveland

Super Bowl Odds

I've already made it clear in a variety of formats since March, but I believe the best chances for Super Bowl berths are the Cowboys and Chargers. The Chargers are the nearest thing to a lock to win their conference since the 09 Saints. But let's take a look at some odds.


The Chargers at 5:1 are a fantastic bet. They odds I would have liked to see, and you could have gotten better odds in March but sadly, Vegas has caught on and realized that Chargers have the best shot to reach the big game.

The second choice would Pittsburg at +570. This isn't bad but it would take about 7 or 8 to 1 for me to think about betting on the Steelers.

The face that the Jets and Ravens have similar odds to those two teams is a joke. Sucker bets.

For long odds, the Raiders have some value at 66 to 1. Twice the payoff as the Chiefs? Now it is unlikely that the Raiders win the Super Bowl, but there is value there.


The Cowboys are at +950. This is a pretty solid bet. I'd say their actual odds are about the same as Green Bay, who only give you +250 so this is probably the best bet on the board.

For longer odds, the Bears have a lot of value. This team was one game away last year and are probably better. They give you the 9th best odds at 18:1? Insane. I don't see them beating Dallas or Green Bay, but worse odds than "pencil us in at 6-10" Tampa Bay?

Saturday, September 3, 2011

NFL Futures

Since my fantasy content has moved to this site will now just be a place for the lines. Starting off with the over-unders.

The following are slam dunks. Take them to the bank.

Chargers over 10 wins

Cowboys over 9 wins

Bucs under 8.5 wins

Chiefs under 8 wins

A few more that should be considered

Raiders over 7 wins

Bengals under 6 wins

Ravens under 11 wins

Jets under 10 wins

Bears over 9 wins

And now for the divisions

NFC South: Almost a toss up between the Saints and Falcons. Saints are better team, the slight favorite and the odds reflect that. There is no bet here.

NFC North: There is some value in the Bears at 6:1, but the Packers will still most likely win this division.

NFC East: The Cowboys, the likely champion, are sporting attractive 3:1 odds, the same as the Giants. Strongest bet you will find.

NFC West: This is another toss up division, this time between San Francisco and St Louis. The Niners have some value here at 2.5:1, whereas the Rams will only give you 1.5:1. This is a bet.

AFC West: Like the Bears, the Raiders have some value with outside chance and 6:1 odds. But at the end of the day, San Diego will come out on top.

AFC North: The Steelers, who most certainly will win, are only costing you 1:1.25, not nearly as bad as the odds the Chargers or Packers will give you. This is a decent betting opportunity.

AFC East: The Pats are once again the favorite, but their odds (1.7:1) aren't as attractive as the Steelers'. The Jest are an outside chance but I would want better than the 1.8:1 odds you can get.

AFC SOuth: These odds are off the board while Peyton Manning's injury is uncertain. Unless he misses a significant amount of time, the Colts will still win the division.