Friday, February 10, 2012

2012 Super Bowl Odds

So the early odds are out. Let's take a look. Teams in bold are bettable.

Green Bay-6:1 They certainly should be the favorite and are the most likely champion. Not a terrible bet, I wouldn't be surprised if the odds are closer to 3.5:1 in September. Could the defense and running game be worse next year?

New England-7:1 Sucker's bet. There is no way this team at present can make it back to the Super Bowl.

New Orleans-8:1 This is about where I expected the Saints odds to be. It's not fair odds since navigating the NFC playoffs will be tricky, and though the Saints have the easiest division in the NFC now, they still aren't as good as several other NFC teams. They have a chance, but not with these odds.

Houston-10:1 Vegas nailed this one. Houston ended the season looking like the best team in the AFC and like New Orleans, should clean up on the worst division in the conference. I would certainly pick Houston to go to the Super Bowl. However winning it against the NFC Champ is another story.

Philly-13:1 This is another pick right in that sweet spot, where the odds start to be higher, but the teams are just as good as the teams with half the payoff.

Ravens-14:1 Which of these teams looks like its window is closing? Certainly Pittsburgh's window is closing faster than Baltimore's. Pitt has a quarterback that can't stay healthy, a terrible oline, and an aging defense that can no longer compensate for the above

NY Giants-15:1 This is fair, considering what teams are around them, but is this team a repeat champion? No way. Staying far away from this pick.

San Francisco-17:1 This isn’t terrible, the odds are in that sweet spot, but I would like to see the odds go over 20 to give them a shot. With the improved AFC West, it will be tougher for the Niners to secure a buy, and thus to beat the teams coming out of the North and East.

San Diego-19:1 Without that mid-season swoon, San Diego might be celebrating right now. If they had fired Norv Turner, these odds might be a lot lower. I don’t want to bet on Turner but San Diego is as good as any AFC team. At these odds….

Dallas-20:1 When you get to these odds, you typically are looking at teams that don’t have a realistic chance. Dallas does. If they can keep from beating themselves, from throwing away close losses, they will be in the playoffs. In the NFC playoffs, anything can happen.

Detroit-20:1 These odds aren’t that bad, but the road to the playoffs is going to be tough for Detroit. Playing in the league’s hardest division, and trying to get in as a second wildcard? Detroit will be back, but not in 2012.

Atlanta-22:1 Well this is a joke. What about this team would cause anyone to believe they have a shot?

NY Jets-22:1 These odds are bettable, if they get Peyton Manning. Cmon, the Jets were lucky to win as many as they did this year. This team is a distant third in its own division.

Chicago-30:1 Wait, what? The Bears, a top-5 team before they lost their qb, have worse odds than Atlanta, Detroit and the Jets? I would bet this now before the sharks hammer this line into shape. To get a team with a legit chance at 30:1, that’s rare.

Dolphins-35:1 One of these teams is not like the other. One of these teams will make the playoffs in a weak conference. Yeah, it’s Miami, who looked as good as anyone in the AFC over the second half. That was before they might get Peyton Manning. I don’t think they win, but if you want a longshot in the AFC, you can’t beat the odds on Miami.

Sunday, February 5, 2012

Season Wrapup/Early 2012 Pick

All Picks (120-78-3) 60.6%

Playoff Picks (10-1)

Honestly, I will likely never repeat this year. That percentage stands on its own, and I am really, really pleased with how this year went.

Early, 2012 Super Bowl Pick

Houston vs Chicago