Monday, September 20, 2010

Mondays Minings

What we learned: Carolina-Tampa
So far, Carolina looks like the worst team in the league, and certainly the worst defense. I would consider almost any player in a matchup against the Panthers. Well, unless that player is Cadillac Williams. For Carolina's offense, we have confirmed that there aren't enough fantasy points to support two running backs. This is the reason why I avoided Williams and especially Stewart in drafts this fall. 3 yards/carry? 5o yards each? There isn't going to be a better matchup than this. You are probably stuck starting Williams but maybe you can trade him to someone who still thinks he has value. In no case should Stewart be started. The switch to Clause is probably good for Steve Smith, but he was going to produce anyways due to the SWAG'N theory.

What we learned Houston-Washington
The one weakness of the Texans is obviously the secondary. Has to be more than just the loss of Dunta Robinson. For the Skins, Portis is a play only against good matchups, but at least he is getting the bulk of the carries. Santana Moss should be a regular start, but noone else qualifies. Cooley benefited from the matchup but I don't think he should be used most weeks. Despite the loss Washington looks like a solid team, perhaps the class of the NFC East.

What we learned Indianapolis-New York
Felt like I was taking crazy pills when analyst after analyst thought the Giants were good, some picking them to win the decision. Well the pills have apparently worn off and the Giants exposed. The lone bright spot was pickup of the week, Mario Manningham. For the Colts a few things became clear. Wayne and Clark are the primary options. Collie and Garcon are the secondary targets. This is good new for Collie, as Anthony Gonzalez isn't seeing much time. Collie who was drafted well behind Garcon appears to be just as good a play, although there will be weeks when Garcon hits. Joseph Addai looks great and again received the bulk of the meaningful carries, the touchdown aside. Donald Brown struggled for most of the game, but put up better numbers in garbage time. Handcuff at best.

Fluke of the Week: Pittsburgh over Tennessee
Week 1 saw a bad Kansas City team beat the Chargers through a combination of special teams and luck. This week, the Steelers, though as incapable of creating drives as they were the previous week against Atlanta, beat the Titans with one kickoff return and one terrible officiating mistake. Yes, the Titans made seven turnovers, but some of those turnovers happened because the Titans were put in an uncomfortable situation. What we learned: Though Nate Washington got another touchdown, he is not a fantasy option, only racking up 34 yards despite the team being in a passing scenario all game. On the other side, the Steeler receivers are not going to be consistent plays either. It would be safe at the moment to start running backs against Tennessee, but not wideouts. The opposite is true for those matching up against Pittsburgh.

Quick Hits:
Either the Ravens defense is vulnerable to the run this year, or Benson is going to put up numbers.
Nice to see Desean Jackson putting up solid numbers. After 2 weeks, I believe all the top wrs have a 100+ TD game.
Sticking with the Eagles, Lesean McCoy is going to get enough carries to be useful. If someone thinks he is selling high after this week, it might the time to swing a trade.
The NFC west could possibly be won at 6-10. Any of the four might come in last in the AFC west.
Can you still get anything for Jamal Charles or Jerome Harrison? their value has been submarined by their backups.
Everyone was scared to say how bad Peterson looked last year, he looks like 2008 vintage so far this fall. Too bad the team is now so bad around him.
Jermichael Finley looks uncoverable.
Seattle run defense may just be good.
Poor Randy Moss got stuck on Cromartie Island. Yes, he is the first to be stuck there.

Sell High Don't Buy
Jahvid Best RB Lions - Lots of touchdowns and a lot of garbage time action. 20 yards week 1. 3 yards/carry week 2. A lot of receiving yardage and one big run as the Lions lit up the board after the Eagles shut it down.
Kyle Orton QB Broncos - Yards have piled up, but look at the slate of opponents.
Mark Sanchez QB Jets - Looked good this week, Carson Palmer looked good against the Pats too.
Mike Tolbert RB Chargers - Not going to happen again, count on that.

Buy Low
Felix Jones RB Cowboys - It has looked bad so far, but better days will come. And weaker opponents.
Larry Fitzgerald WR Cardinals - In case his owner panics. He will rebound and put up top 1 numbers. Remember SWAG'N.

Eye Don't Buy:
Brandon Pettigrew TE Lions - I liked Pettigrew last year and for the future, but with two tight ends on the Lions, it will be tough to start him this year. But if you have an empty spot....

Machine Murphy WR Raiders - Bruce loves him, so do I.
Josh Morgan WR 49ers - How was he undrafted while Crabtree was a 5th rounder?

Note: Though I never referred to it by acronym before, I have long used the theory that Stud Wideouts Always Get Numbers.(SWAG'N) This means that the top receivers will end up putting up points even in a bad situation, with bad quarterbacks or against tough matchups. For example, see Andre Johnson on some bad Texans teams a few years ago.

1 comment:

  1. Donald Brown did not struggle...he was killing it before the game got out of hand.