Saturday, December 24, 2011

Week 17 Picks

Super Contest (45-33-2)

Dolphins over Jets
Chiefs +3.5 over Broncos
Ravens -1.5 over Bengals
Jags -1.5 over Colts
Lions -1.5 over Packers

All Picks (104-73-3)

Bills +13.5 over Patriots
Rams +10.5 over 49ers
Eagles -8 over Redskins
Vikings +1 over Bears
Cowboys +2.5 over Giants
Texans +3 over Titans

Monday, December 19, 2011

Week 16 Picks

Super Contest (42-31-2)

Texans -5.5 over Colts
Chargers + 1.5 over Lions
Panthers -7.5 over Bucs
Packers -12.5 over Bears
Bills +3.5 over Broncos

All Picks (95-70-3)

Jags +8 over Titans
Raiders +1 over Chiefs
Browns +14.5 over Ravens
Dolphins +10.5 over Patriots
Vikings +7 over Redskins
Rams +15.5 over Steelers
49ers -2.5 over Seahawks

Tuesday, December 13, 2011

Week 15 Picks

Super Contest (38-30-2)

Patriots -6.5 over Broncos
Browns +7 over Cards
Chargers +2.5 over Ravens
Cowboys -6.5 over Bucs
Bills over Dolphins

All Picks (86-65-3)

Jags +11.5 over Falcons
Packers -14 over Chiefs
Texans -6.5 over Panthers
Titans - 7 over Colts
Lions -1 over Raiders
Bengals - 4.5 over Rams
Seahawks +4.5 over Bears
Saints -7.5 over Vikings
Eagles -2.5 over Jets

Wednesday, December 7, 2011

Week 14 Picks

Super Contest (35-28-2)

Bears +3.5 over Broncos
49ers -3.5 over Cardinals
Lions -7.5 over Vikings
Texans +1.5 over Bengals
Jags +1.5 over Bucs

All Picks (81-59-3)

Cowboys - 3 over Giants
Chargers - 7 over Bills
Panthers +2.5 over Falcons
Dolphins - 3 over Eagles
Raiders +12.5 over Packers
Jets -8.5 over Chiefs

Sunday, December 4, 2011

BCS+ Schedule

With the regular season wrapped up, let's take a look at the Bowl schedule under the BCS+ system. Remember, after the bowl games, the polls and computers are tallied once again to produce a title game for the following Monday.

Sugar Bowl: LSU vs Stanford
Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma State vs Alabama
Rose Bowl: Oregon vs Wisconsin
Orange Bowl: Clemson vs West Virginia

Monday, November 28, 2011

BCS+ Update 2

To continue from last week, certain scenarios have become more solid after another week of games. Let's see where we are(or would be) under the BCS+ plan.

One major bowl is locked in. The Rose would feature the winner of the Big Ten and the winner of the Pac 10.

Rose: Oregon/UCLA-Wisconsin/Michigan St

The rest is still up in the air.

If LSU beats Georgia:

They would face Virginia Tech in the Sugar Bowl, unless VT loses to Clemson, in which case LSU would face Stanford.

The winner of Oklahoma/Oklahoma St would face Alabama in the Fiesta Bowl

and The winner of the Big East would face Clemson should they prevail in the ACCC and Stanford otherwise.

The national Championship game would almost certainly be the Sugar and Fiesta winners.

If LSU loses:

Georgia would play the Big East winner in the Sugar, LSU would go to the Fiesta against the OU/OSU winner, and Alabama would go to the Orange against VT/Clemson

In which case the likely NC game would be the Fiesta winner against the Orange winner, but if the Orange winner ended up being Clemson, there is a chance Georgia or the Rose winner could slip in.

So there are 6 teams that have a realistic chance of a NC game berth going into the conference championships.

Fiesta: OU/OSU-Alabama/LSU

So confusing, so awesome

Sunday, November 27, 2011

Week 13 Picks

Super Contest (34-24-2)

Bucs -3 over Panthers
Cowboys -4.5 over Cards
Chargers -1.5 over Jags
Raiders +2.5 over Dolphins
Eagles -3 over Seahawks

All Picks (79-51-3)

Texans +1.5 over Falcons
Lions +10 over Saints
Bengals +7.5 over Steelers
Bears -8 over Chiefs
Bills over Titans

Monday, November 21, 2011

BCS+ Update

Last year I postulated a +1 system to determine a college championship. I'm just going to do a quick rundown of the current scenarios.

Should LSU finish the season unbeaten, they would be the number one team. They would pull the third rated conference winner into the Sugar Bowl.

This would be Virginia Tech if they win. If VT fails to win the ACC, it would open the door for Stanford to get to the Sugar Bowl.

The winner of Oklahoma and OSU would as the second rated conference winner would pull Auburn into the Fiesta Bowl.

So the line up would be

Rose: Oregon-Big 10 champ
Fiesta: OU/OSU-Alabama
Sugar: LSU-VT/Stanford

The Orange is where it gets confusing. If VTech does win the ACC, then the Big East Champ would be the home team and the second team could be Stanford, the OU/OSU loser or Arkansas. If VTech loses, then said ACC winner would now face the Big East Champ as the home team.

In the end, though. The national championship would almost certainly showcase the winner of that Fiesta against the winner of that Sugar.

Of course, if Oregon loses to Oregon St, then Stanford could win the PAC 10, it could render all this moot as everything would be scrambled. Oregon would be out of the picture, Stanford would end up in the Rose Bowl and Boise would have a shot a spot in the Sugar Bowl against LSU.

This is just the beginning of the scenarios that would be discussed under the system. I didn't even get into what would happen if LSU loses, either to Arkansas or SC.

Sunday, November 20, 2011

Week 12 Picks

Super Contest (30-23-2)

Panthers -3 over Colts
Texans -3.5 over Jags
Vikings +10.5 over Falcons
Giants +8 over Saints
Raiders -4.5 over Bears

All Picks (72-48-3)

Bills +10.5 over Jets
Redskins +4 over Seahawks
Browns +8.5 over Bengals
Chargers -7.5 over Broncos
Steelers -11 over Chiefs

Sunday, November 13, 2011

Week 11 Picks

Super Contest (28-20-2)

Bengals +8 over Ravens
Jaguars over Browns
Raiders over Vikings
Cowboys - 9 over Redskins
Bills +1 over Dolphins

All Picks (68-42-3)

Lions -8 over Panthers
Rams - 1 over Seahawks
Eagles +5.5 over Giants
Cardinals +11 over 49ers

Monday, November 7, 2011

Week 10 Picks

Super Contest (25-18-2)

Eagles -13.5 over Cardinals
Steelers -3 over Bengals
Cowboys -5.5 over Bills
Texans -3.5 over Bucs
Ravens - 6.5 over Seahawks

All Picks (60-40-3)

Jags -3 over Colts
Titans +3 over Panthers
Dolphins -4 over Redskins
Bears -2.5 over Lions
Rams +2.5 over Browns

Tuesday, November 1, 2011

Week 9 Picks

Super Contest (22-16-2)

49ers -3 over Redskins
Cowboys -13 over Seahawks
Raiders -7.5 over Broncos
Bears +9 over Eagles
Texans - 10 over Browns

All Picks (51-33-3)

Jets over Bills
Dolphins +5 over Chiefs
Steelers -3 over Ravens
Saints - 8.5 over Bucs
Titans -2 over Bengals
Giants + 8.5 over Patriots
Rams+3.5 over Cardinals

Tuesday, October 25, 2011

Week 8 Picks

Super Contest (21-13-1)

Chargers -3 over Chiefs
Cowboys +3.5 over Eagles
Lions -3.5 over Broncos
49ers -10 over Browns
Giants -9.5 over Dolphins

All Picks (48-29-2)

Rams +15 over Saints
Cardinals +14 over Ravens
Seahawks +1 over Bengals

Monday, October 17, 2011

Week 7 Picks

Super Contest (18-11-1)

Steelers -3 over Cards
Packers -7.5 over Vikings
Chargers -1 over Jets
Bears over Bucs
Cowboys -12.5 over Rams

All Picks (44-25-2)

Texans +3 over Titans
Lions -3.5 over Falcons
Raiders -3 over Chiefs

Monday, October 10, 2011

Week 6 Picks

Super Contest (15-9-1)

Colts +8 over Bengals
Texans +7 over Ravens
Raiders -6.5 over Browns
Eagles over Redskins
Bears -3 over Vikings

All Picks (38-22-1)

Giants -3 over Bills
Cowboys +7.5 over Patriots
Saints -4.5 over Bucs
Packers -14.5 over Rams
Falcons -3.5 over Panthers
Dolphins +9 over Jets

Sunday, October 2, 2011

Week 5 Picks

Super Contest (12-7-1)

Vikings -1 over Cards
Eagles - 1 over Bills
Chargers - 4.5 over Broncos
Bengals +1 over Jags
Giants -11.5 over Seahawks

All Picks (32-18-1)

Raiders +7 over Texans
Packers -4 over Falcons
Titans +5 over Steelers
Bears +7 over Lions
49ers +1.5 over Bucs

Monday, September 26, 2011

Week 4 Picks

Super Contest (9-5-1)

Giants over Cardinals
Vikings over Chiefs
Bears -7.5 over Panthers
Redskins over Rams
Chargers -8 over Dolphins

All Picks (24-14-1)

Packers -14.5 over Broncos
Titans over Browns
Cowboys over Lions
Colts +11 over Bucs
Texans -4 over Steelers
Falcons - 4 over Seahawks

Monday, September 19, 2011

Week 3 Picks

Supercontest (7-2-1)

49ers +1 over Bengals
Dolphins +3 over Browns
Lions -4 over Vikings
Falcons -1 over Bucs
Chargers -15 over Chiefs

All Picks (17-7-1)

Texans +4.5 over Saints
Rams +3.5 over Ravens
Panthers -3.5 over Jaguars
Giants +9 over Eagles
Raiders +3.5 over Jets
Broncos +7 over Titans
Steelers - 11 over Colts
Seahawks +3.5 over Cardinals
Cowboys -4.5 over Redskins

Monday, September 12, 2011

Week 2 Picks

Supercontest (5-0)

Dallas -3 over San Francisco
Houston -2.5 over Miami
Washington -4 over Arizona
Detroit -8 over Kansas City
Philadelphia -1 over Atlanta

All Picks (12-2)

Chicago +7 over New Orleans
San Diego +9 over New England
Pittsburgh -12.5 over Seattle
Green Bay -10 over Carolina
Tennessee +4 over Baltimore
New York Giants - 5.5 over St Louis

Monday, September 5, 2011

Week 1 Picks

Top 5 Picks

Each week I will classify 5 picks as if I was in the Hilton Supercontest

Detroit +3 over Tampa
Dallas +4.5 over New York Jets
Green Bay -4 over New Orleans
Oakland +3 over Denver
Phlly -4.5 over St Louis

Other picks

Pittsburgh +2.5 over Baltimore
Buffalo +7 over Kansas City
Houston -7 over Indy
New York Giants - 3 over Washington
New England -7 over Miami
Carolina +8 over Arizona
Chicago +2.5 over Atlanta
San Francisco -5.5 over Seattle
Cincinnati +7 over Cleveland

Super Bowl Odds

I've already made it clear in a variety of formats since March, but I believe the best chances for Super Bowl berths are the Cowboys and Chargers. The Chargers are the nearest thing to a lock to win their conference since the 09 Saints. But let's take a look at some odds.


The Chargers at 5:1 are a fantastic bet. They odds I would have liked to see, and you could have gotten better odds in March but sadly, Vegas has caught on and realized that Chargers have the best shot to reach the big game.

The second choice would Pittsburg at +570. This isn't bad but it would take about 7 or 8 to 1 for me to think about betting on the Steelers.

The face that the Jets and Ravens have similar odds to those two teams is a joke. Sucker bets.

For long odds, the Raiders have some value at 66 to 1. Twice the payoff as the Chiefs? Now it is unlikely that the Raiders win the Super Bowl, but there is value there.


The Cowboys are at +950. This is a pretty solid bet. I'd say their actual odds are about the same as Green Bay, who only give you +250 so this is probably the best bet on the board.

For longer odds, the Bears have a lot of value. This team was one game away last year and are probably better. They give you the 9th best odds at 18:1? Insane. I don't see them beating Dallas or Green Bay, but worse odds than "pencil us in at 6-10" Tampa Bay?

Saturday, September 3, 2011

NFL Futures

Since my fantasy content has moved to this site will now just be a place for the lines. Starting off with the over-unders.

The following are slam dunks. Take them to the bank.

Chargers over 10 wins

Cowboys over 9 wins

Bucs under 8.5 wins

Chiefs under 8 wins

A few more that should be considered

Raiders over 7 wins

Bengals under 6 wins

Ravens under 11 wins

Jets under 10 wins

Bears over 9 wins

And now for the divisions

NFC South: Almost a toss up between the Saints and Falcons. Saints are better team, the slight favorite and the odds reflect that. There is no bet here.

NFC North: There is some value in the Bears at 6:1, but the Packers will still most likely win this division.

NFC East: The Cowboys, the likely champion, are sporting attractive 3:1 odds, the same as the Giants. Strongest bet you will find.

NFC West: This is another toss up division, this time between San Francisco and St Louis. The Niners have some value here at 2.5:1, whereas the Rams will only give you 1.5:1. This is a bet.

AFC West: Like the Bears, the Raiders have some value with outside chance and 6:1 odds. But at the end of the day, San Diego will come out on top.

AFC North: The Steelers, who most certainly will win, are only costing you 1:1.25, not nearly as bad as the odds the Chargers or Packers will give you. This is a decent betting opportunity.

AFC East: The Pats are once again the favorite, but their odds (1.7:1) aren't as attractive as the Steelers'. The Jest are an outside chance but I would want better than the 1.8:1 odds you can get.

AFC SOuth: These odds are off the board while Peyton Manning's injury is uncertain. Unless he misses a significant amount of time, the Colts will still win the division.