Sunday, December 20, 2009

QB Review

I'm going to do this a bit differently, everyone had the same top 3. Brees was the universal number one and he has played like it. Brady and Manning were usually 2-3 but Brady often went much higher(right behind Brees on occasion) while Manning often slipped to to the late second round. I identified this as a mistake. It turned out to be correct as Manning is easily 2nd while Brady is 7th. He was just too much of a risk, although the chance that he turned out to be number one still justifies taking him 3rd.

After that there were four guys that were going in all different orders. Warner, Rodgers, Rivers and Romo were all taken in the 4th round typically. I thought Romo should go 4th but I targeted taking Rodgers, saying that he and Rivers were 5 a and 5b and the best value. In the end, Rodgers was a standout 3rd and the other two were solid top 8 guys. I disagreed with Warner's ranking, thinking him too big of a risk. I turned out to be right about that, as Warner is 10th, certainly not worth drafting where you would have had to.

Those six guys (Brees, Manning, Rodgers, Romo, Rivers, Brady) are the top six picks again next year. Warner gets riskier and riskier as he gets older.

My number seven was Cutler. That was where I went against the grain for quarterbacks and I was very wrong. My worst pick of the year. His was typically ranked from 10th to 13th. I targeted him as a steal. Luckily noone is reading this and taking advice so I was the only one who was killed by this call. He finished 14th.

The next three were universally McNabb, Ryan and Schaub. I agreed, but thought that Palmer and Roethlisburger were just as good picks. All of them had some question marks and it would be best to grab two of those five if you didn't get a top guy. The three had vastly divergent paths. McNabb finished right where he was picked. Ryan was injured and Schaub blew up. I think they all end up ranked where they were this year. Schaub was good but he hasn't established the consistency of the top 7. Ryan will be back.

I was right about Plamer and Roethlisburger. They finished with McNabb, exactly where you'd expect from a 5th or 6th rounder. The two frequently dropped as low as the 9th round.

My only other picks were Garrard as reliable backup in the 13th and a warning against taking Cassel. Right about Cassel who was useless and wrong about Garrard, who was also useless. The biggest surprise was the mammoth totals of Brett Favre, who I neglected to mention, making my rankings before he came out of retirement. For 2010, I do not like Farve who will be overdrafted and I do like Alex Smith, who will finish around 8-14.

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