Tuesday, November 17, 2009

Matchup rankings

Once again these are the matchups you want to send your running backs against. Or want to avoid, as it goes.

1 star- matchups to avoid
Steelers
Bengals
Ravens

1.5 stars-matchups that are usually rough but have lapses
Titans
Eagles
Giants

2 stars-top tier backs have destroyed them, but they've held most rbs
49ers
Vikings
Jets

3 stars- steady, expect mediocre results
Colts
Falcons
Cowboys
Dolphins

3 stars-falling, previously tougher defenses have suffered injuries
Saints
Bears
Broncos,not injuries, just falling apart

3 stars-rising, be wary, they may be even better a few weeks from now
Chargers
Texans
Panthers
Patriots

3 stars-random, who knows what to expect
Packers, looks elite one week, a disaster the next

4 stars-they've shut down the weakest of backs
Cardinals
Jaguars
Redskins

4.5 stars-startem all
Raiders
Browns
Chiefs
Seahawks

5 stars- the matchups that make your mouth water
Bills
Bucs
Lions
Rams

Monday, November 16, 2009

Mondays Minings-Week 10

The big talk this week is a few coaching decisions. It is important to judge the decision without considering the outcome. For the Patriots going for it was the right call, even though it turned out badly. For the Jags it was a bad call, even though it wound up working. I don't mean MJD shouldn't have taken that knee. Great football decision, but what happened after was just dumb. Del Rio wasted all the time off the clock and took a field goal with 2 seconds left. A botched snap or blocked kick ends the game needlessly in this situation. Now, the Jags aren't running Slaton or Peterson or anyone as fumble friendly. Take the 40 seconds after the kneel and try to punch it in. If you fail you still have the same field goal situation and a potential second try if you don't get the kick off. How hard is that?

I know Bill Simmons has talked about a VP of common sense, but I agree with him fully here. NFL coaches need an assistant of common sense. Someone to just watch from the sideline and tell him when something is colossally stupid. Hey, don't call a timeout at 2:02, hey, don't run your lightning back right into the line on 4th and 2.

The problem, is that NFL coach is a job that requires many different skills, and the process of qualifying for the position does not necessitate all of them. NFL head coaches are selected primarily on the basis of being a good coordinator. I've talked previously about some of the faults a good coordinator might not have that prevent him(martz) or hinder him(reid) from being a good head coach, but I haven't touched on this. Coordinators do not often have to make decisions, they call plays, but don't decide. They get told what to do in the big situations and are responsible for details more often than the big picture stuff. So coaches who are bad at that type of thing don't get weeded out. What's more, the jib of and NFL coach takes upwards of 20 hours a day and is filled with uncountable tasks to which we do not witness. Gameplans, motivation, organization, personnel. This leaves even the best of them open to completely obvious bonehead moves. There is no way to know beforehand, which qualified assistants are common sense lackwits, and it is such a small part of their 100 hour week, but it often determinate in a game. Guys like Belichick clearly get it. Guys like Del Rio and Reid do not. Understanding how demanding and complicated the position is, doesn't it make even more sense that NFL coaches have an assistant on their bench who just sits there and says nothing until his boss is about to make an incredibly obvious error. "hey coach, this might be a good time to hustle to the line, they might challenge"

Moving on to this week's games:

Denver's defense is falling apart. Far from a fluke, the Washington loss looks like part of a general slide. Start away against the Broncos. Aside from a pair of early plays, where they forgot to cover Marshall, this was a slaughter. I don't think Betts is a reliable play going forward. As strange as this would have been a few weeks ago, he doesn't play Denver every week.

Ease up on Bud he is, in the words of Don't Ask, an old fat grandpa man. Without Adams and Lamar Hunt, there would have been no AFL, and no 60s expansion for the NFL either. His boy, Vince Young is playing like we always hoped he would. Titans will contend next year, led by the best back who didn't fumble twice this week.

My Superbowl pick is currently 16-0, but the Saints really haven't looked good for a few weeks now. You can run on them now, due to some defensive injuries and some offensive ineptitude(mostly due to the use of Mike Bell, get a clue Payton). Anytime they've gotten Thomas his carries, he has been a beast. Any time they they spread them around, they struggle.

If Benson misses any time, do not plug in his backup. It's not that kind of offense. An injured Benson probably means more points for Palmer. On the other side, you can most likely throw in a Falcons back and do ok.

Mendenhall had a tough game, but this is the toughest matchup on his schedule. Keep the faith.

Monday, November 9, 2009

Mondays Minings-Week 9

Was that Ahman Green playing for the Packers? Are things going that bad? Will they send out Paul Hornung next week? Nice game for Grant in an complete fluke of a game. Then again, he was going against the Bucs. He is a sell high if you can.

For the Texans, Moats looked, um, well better than Slaton, other than the fumble. That part looked exactly like Slaton. They couldn't get Dwyer fast enough, though Green Bay will probably draft him first. I do like what I see, and would feel confident starting Moats the rest of the way. He will have better matchups and a few goal line opportunities. Texans will be leading more games in the second halves. I'd buy before his value goes up if you can. At this point however, you should be looking at what matchups you have left. If you like two backs that you have, there isn't much point in acquiring another just because he has value. You need to look at who you are going to start when. You primarily consider the next few weeks if you are hunting a playoff spot, and weeks 15-16 if you are looking strong.

That game for Chris Chambers was ridiculous and we are all dumber for having witnessed it. He is an ideal UFL receiver. Matt Cassell, product of the Patriots system? Looks that way. Sims-Walker has been noticeably inconsistent, and has scored quite a few points on my bench, but he has my confidence going forward. The Jags will normally be behind, and he should be the target. Play him.

Cedric Benson has to be in any discussion about the best back in the league. On the other side, Rice has a poor game but still gets the bulk of the work. They've committed.


Improving run defenses: patriots and panthers
Worsening run defenses: redskins, saints and bears

Matt Forte really is looking better, even though he rarely ran down 20 points.

Cmon Andy Reid, just run Weaver in short yardage. That's what he is there for.

Diamonds
Last mention for the following here. They've been good too many weeks in a row.
Benson, CJohnson, PThomas,MJD, DWilliams, Turner.

But speaking of Williams, what a strange career path. From a disappointment, to a very fluky stat total last year, to just being flat out good. I have to admit, I didn't see this coming, from the injury to Stewart, to his return being basically a benching, to DWilliams becoming a feature back.

Monday, November 2, 2009

Mondays Minings-Week 8

Gut punch Sunday at the mines, Owen Daniels is out for the season just a week after being awarded an exclusive diamond of the week. That obviously hurts the owners of the number one tight end. Not much you can do, although maybe its the time to trade a third running back, maybe one that has a poor schedule down the line. The benching of Slaton, turned out to be the best thing for the Texans as Moats looked much better. I've said all along, the Texans need another rb, turns out they had one all along. What Moats was doing behind Chris Brown on the depth chart is beyond me but he is obviously the pickup of the week. Ideally, Moats and Slaton could be a 1-2 punch. For now, bench Slaton and pickup the Moatman. The Texans rb1 has had a favorable schedule. It's time to see if they can take advantage of it.

Nothing like a game against the Browns to get a running back back on his feet. Forte finally puts up some numbers against a terrible defense, without managing to look very impressive. The schedule will get tougher so now may be the peak trading time for Forte. The Bears defense is weakening as well, giving up too many ypc to Jamal Lewis. Could be a better matchup down the line than you think.

To be a bit self indulgent, it appears my quarterback curse may be over. Every year in my longtime keeper league, my qb situation is a diaster as I end with up the guy I target only to watch him suffer an injury within 4 weeks. I've taken down the seasons of Chad Pennington, Matt Hasselback, Donovan McNabb and Ben Roethlisburger. Pennington and Hassleback haven't had fantasy relevance since. So far Tony Romo has avoided the curse and looks pretty feisty. As I write these words, I am fully prepared for him to go down. Meanwhile, the Cowboys look pretty good, showing improvements on defense in particular.

Without Donald Brown, Addai looks like a very good play, especially considering his schedule. He got all but one of the carries on Sunday.

Eagles rb1 is a must play every week. They will have their Dr Jeckyll games, but opponent won't help you predict them. You have to play him every week. On the other side of the ball Jacobs put up a respectable game against a stingy Eagles D.

Vince Young looked very good. Calm and confident. That will help CJ's value for the remainder. I couldn't be more excited about Vince Young 2.0. He should change his name to Vincent to distinguish the new from the old.

Norv was so determined to get LDT a touchdown it's sad. After someone else got ONE goal line carry a few weeks ago he pouted on the sideline, Norv rewards his behavior by giving him 8 goal line carries last week. Since his fork prevented him from getting in, he got all the goal line carries this week, and gets two TDs without doing anything to get the team down there. Anyways, don't be tricked into starting him next week.

Peterson puts up solid numbers again but he is dropping in 2010 mocks. He just doesn't look good. I have more faith in the 2010s of MJD, SJAX, and CJ right now. A few others are knocking on his door.

Diamonds(a bunch of obvious ones this week, but those top running backs looked really really good.)
Chris Johnson
Maurice Jones-Drew
Steven Jackson
Brett Favre
Pierre Thomas - Sit Bell on the bench any time, the frenchman is a monster
Ray Rice- There is no more three headed monster in Baltimore.
Miles Austin

Saturday, October 31, 2009

Television Review-The League

Television isn't typically what this blog is about, but in this case, a show about fantasy football is appropriate to talk about. The League premiered this week, and while pilots are often not as good as the show turns out to be, this one has some glaring problems that seen like they will continue. As with most sitcoms, this one will live or die on its actors and writers. The league is effectively mediocre in both categories. It will never be a 30 Rock, but it is a bit snappier than a CBS sitcom. I'll continue to watch, but mostly for the subject matter.
However, it is the subject matter that is the biggest problem with this show. Most of the jokes fall into two categories: the guys take fantasy football way too serious, and the guys don't know anything about fantasy football. This strains my suspension of disbelief too far. We're supposed to believe these guys are willing to make career decisions and kidnap kids to do well in FF but are not willing to sit down and spend 2 hours preparing for their draft, or god forbid, buy a magazine.
When The Office referenced fantasy football with an illogical reference a few years back(noone would have ever traded a top rb for defense) it was acceptable. You don't expect them to know what they are talking about. But when your show is about fantasy football, you should probably know a little about it. It as if the writers of The Office knew so little about offices they had everyone sitting on futons and using typewriters.
Some of these jokes would have worked say 6-7 years ago, when it was much harder to get information about fantasy football. Without 24 coverage on major networks and free draft kits on every sports website, I would buy jokes like the kid being the Oracle. Not now. It is just too easy to obtain reliable fantasy tips. It reminds me of something Bill Simmons was saying the other day. On his podcast, he was complaining that fantasy football is all luck now. He couldn't be more wrong about this. What has happened, is that his advantage has disappeared. 7 years ago, he had a distinct advantage over his friends that did not have sports related jobs. He had a lot more information at his disposal. Now all of his competitors can catch up in a few hours the week before the draft by Reading Berry, Karabell or whoever. The extremely lazy can just use ESPN's projections and really be just as well off as a sports columnist. It's not luck, just an even playing field. Getting back to The League, the landscape has changed, and some of these jokes don't work, if they ever would have.
Now if, I were to make a show about fantasy football, and I did have this idea a while back(it was going to be titled Keepers) I would make some of the characters way to into it. I would have a character or two that was not well informed,(you do want the jokes that are thus provided) but that character would definitely not be that into it.(yes, I have put substantially more thought into Keepers than is probably good for anyone.)
While decidedly mediocre in most elements, the show fails miserably in a few key areas. But in the end, I'm going to keep watching for a while, which is really what they were going for in the first place.

Monday, October 26, 2009

Mondays Minings-Week 7

Fantastic weekend at the mines, virtually everything came out right. Starting as usual with Houston, I am very impressed. The defense, as I said last week, is looking better and better. I believe Gore's poor showing reflects the defensive turnaround more than his return. A remarkable turnaround since the first few weeks. Running backs lookout. I now believe Owen Daniels will finish as the number one tight end, he has quite the connection with Schaubers. The one thing this team needs, is a running back. Slaton is great as a rich man's Reggie Bush, but he isn't a feature back. I said this after last year, but I'd be surprised if the Texans enter 2010 with a new guy, maybe Jonathan Dwyer of Georgia Tech.

Chargers blew the crappy Chiefs away. Tomlinson played decently, more a reflection of the defense than anything else. 0-8 on goal line carries in a continuing 2009 trends of coaches being morons on the goal line. Seriously, Norv? 8 times for the giant fork. Gates would have gotten a TD on his one attempt if hadn't been held, which earned a first down, unlike any of LDT's 8 tries. I must admit the Chiefs deserve this after tossing aside my Tyler Thigpen after he guided my to a fantasy championship last year. Bowe continues to be a touchdown threat without really piling up yards. Strange, but he really is just a great talent, without a real team around him.

I know it is blasphemy, and he is putting up fantasy points, but Adrian Peterson does not that look good. I'm worried. You could probably trade him and get an almost as good back and something else. I don't know if I would, I'm just worried. I think his 2010 value is slipping. Better to get out a year too early than a year too late. On the other side of the ball Mendenhall looks incredible. He still isn't getting enough carries, but he just looks so good. SWP shouldn't see much more playing time this year.

Once again, Driver, with the score and more yards than Jennings.

DWilliams puts up 70 against the Bills. Again, they aren't going to get easier than this. Bills are not a tough matchup. They were, but that was 2004 and we currently play in 2009.

.
Who dey think is gonna beat dem Bengals? Boom. Roasted. Benson looks like a rich man's Peterson. Palmer is on fire and that defense is stifling. This team is better than even I thought they would be, and I was their biggest proponent other than Ochocinco.


Diamonds
1. Cedric Benson
2. Vincent Jackson
3. Owen Daniels
4. Rashard Mendenhall

Wednesday, October 21, 2009

NFC Schedules Week 7-16

Rams
1E 2D 3C 2B 1A Bye
Mediocre schedule, mediocre playoff schedule. Nothing suggests anything different than a stockpile of yards without the Tds to go with it.

Seahawks
0E 2D 3C 1B 3A Bye
Pretty good schedule but Jones has been shut down easily recently. Forsett might have a little more ability. If he starts to get more carries, he may be a decent option for those late season As.

49ers
1E 2D 3C 3B 1A
Gore missed the best part of his schedule but there is more quality left should he return. I have no confidence in Coffee except in the best matchups. A healthy Gore could run all over 7 of those games including a nice week 16.

Cardinals
2E 3D 0C 2B 3A
A schedule that might tempt you into starting a Cardinal back a few times. Don't do it. Don't do it.

Vikings
1E 3D 2C 2B 1A Bye
Not the best part of the schedule for Peterson, in fact its pretty middling. Not that AD minds that much. You're playing him if you have him, you aren't going to be able to get him if you don't.

Packers
2E 2D 1C 1B 4A
Very nice schedule if Grant is your third back, he has more As left than anyone. He has been a bit sort on TDs but I think that straightens out, especially against those good matchups. Great finals matchup.

Bears
1E 5D 2C 0B 2A
Would you believe Forte has passed the easy part of his schedule? Looks like there won't be much success for him in 09. Maybe the new offense doesn't work for him. Maybe he just doesn't have it. Either way, there isn't much to like for Forte, including a brutal playoff schedule.

Lions
1E 3D 2C 1B 2A Bye
Medium to below average remaining schedule for Kevin Smith, who has satisfies his predictions and surprised me. Smith probably continues as he has, in the low end of the top 20.

Bucs
0E 4D 2C 2B 1A Bye
Not a pretty schedule, not a pretty situation. Cadillac has feasted off some weak opponents, prepare for the famine.

Panthers
1E 3D 2C 2B 2A
DWilliams will probably pile up points against those two As and Bs, leading fantasy owners to overdraft him again next year, all the while frustrating current owners with his erratic production. Hint: his playoff matchups are terrible.

Saints
0E 0D 4C 3B 3A
This is the best remaining schedule in the NFC. Scary good considering the numbers Thomas has put up in just a few games. If you can acquire Thomas, at any time before his excellent playoff schedule, you should do it.

Falcons
1E 4D 2C 1B 2A
So sorry, Michael Turner. He may feast on those As, one of which is in the fantasy finals, but there is too much bad here, and he hasn't looked good against the bad so far. One other possibility is that he will face less men in the box from now on as teams realize he isn't the threat he was rumored to be. Still a trade based on his high potential could pay off.

Eagles
2E 2D 4C 2B 0A
Westbrook owners have probably given up by now, and the schedule won't persuade them to change their minds. If westbrook plays, he'll produce, it's still a matter of when he plays.

Redskins
1E 3D 3C 2B 0A Bye
It's not great but its the NFC East, great doesn't exist. Treat Portis as you always have.

Cowboys
1E 2D 4C 3B 0A
This is actually pretty good, better than the Boys have seen this far. I don't know if you should acquire a Cowboys back with the timesplit, but you should be happy with the ones you have.

Giants
0E 2D 4C 3B 0A Bye
Could be worse, Jacobs should do better against these opponents than what he's done so far. Its middling but h's faced a tough schedule to this point.