Monday, October 11, 2010

Mondays Minings with Matchup Rankings

What We Learned Bengals-Bucs
It was against the Bucs, but the Bengals look like who reasonable people thought they were. They can run and play defense but struggle in the passing game. However, they really struggle in the passing game. In a year in which an unprecedented amount of bad quarterbacks are starting, Carson Palmer looks like the worst. He hit very few receivers that weren't running hooks. Despite rarely facing pressure, he just couldn't hit his targets. Benson looked outstanding, the line looked good, and Palmer repeatedly killed drives by missing easy targets. That said, the Bucs were still very lucky to win this game. Their first touchdown was a pick six on a horrid throw by Palmer. Their second touchdown was courtesy of pass interference on an ill-advised hail-mary on 3rd and 10. Another scoring drive was kept alive by the luckiest bounce on a fumble that I have ever seen. A sack and strip of Freeman bounced about 12 yards to create 2nd and 5 instead of 2nd and 17 or so if he had held onto it. Towards the end, had Palmer kneeled instead of chucking it downfield, they could have pinned the Bucs deep with a punt and won the game. Marching down the field against the prevent, they were set back to first and 20 with less than a minute left. Given the way he'd been throwing, I'd have just gone into overtime instead of giving Palmer license to sling it. What did we learn? The Bucs are terrible, none of them should be on your roster. The Bengals are a potentially decent team, with a massive flaw. Except in deep leagues, I would not feel comfortable starting Owens, despite the numbers he has put up so far.

Quick Hits

Nice to see Ray Rice get back in the mix, although this was one of the better matchups he will see all year.
Interesting to see what happens when Moreno comes back. The running game has to be party suffering because of running talent. I foresee a a large hit to Orton's value, and time to drop any receiver not named Bloyd.
Why on Earth did Todd Collins start that game. The fact that they had to put up with that catastrophic passing attack show the mettle of the Bears defense. Cutler playing with leads and the once-again reliable Matt Forte should go a long way towards the playoffs.
Did you sell high on Jahvid Best? Probably too late now.
Perfect time to sell high on Hakeem Nicks. HIghly doubtful he keeps this up.
If someone thinks their selling high on one of the oyds, Malcolm or Brandon, I think you are buying at fair value.
If the Packers were sucessful in the way hey have been spreading it around, I wouldn't complain, but they scored one touchdown this week. With Finley out, maybe it's time to utilize your best weapons.
It may be finally time to get on board the Felix Jones train. Even in a loss he racked up carries once he saw the bulk of them.
Will Norv ever see the light? RMatthews>JHester>Tolbert>Sproles. Then again, it is Norv.
Seneca Wallace is a better quarterback than many(including me) gave him credit for. Much better than anything Cleveland had last year and yesterday, better than Matt Ryan. He knows how to avoid pressure and make throw on the move. If Cleveland didn't have the hardest schedule in the league, they might do something.

Matchup Rankings

Rankings are based on a consideration of each of the first 5 games. Based on and A to E scale, it seems that the numbers are skewed towards the top. But it seems that compared to recent years, teams are running well, or failing to stop the run. Few teams seem like must-avoid matchups. Of course, these matchup rankings indicate who you want to send your running back against.

Buffalo Bills - In the last two weeks, they gave up 250 yards to the Jets and 70 to a Jaguar rookie in garbage time.

Tampa Bay Bucs - Even in their wins their run defense has been a sieve.

Detroit Lions - Offense scores quick of fizzles, leaving extra times for their opponent to run

Arizona Cardinals - Season-high rushing totals for San Diego and Atlanta

Carolina Panthers - The 200 yards from Chicago was probably an anomaly, but at least 90 yards against each week.

New Orleans Saints - Offense isn't keeping their opponents in the air as much as last year.

New England Patriots
- Defense has been weak, offense is about to give it less help

St Louis Rams
- No disasters, but everyone has run well against the Rams.

Oakland Raiders - Shutting down the Chargers this week is enough to bump the Raiders down to a B.

Philadelphia Eagles - Similarly, the Eagles have upped their stock by shutting down Gore. 2 of their first 4 showings were worrying.

San Francisco 49ers - Did well against two toughest opponents but torched on the ground by Kansas City.

Jacksonville Jaguars - Nothing notable, just consistently subpar run defense

Cincinnati Bengals - We knew the Bengals would struggle to pass, run the ball and play tough defense right? Well what's gone wrong on this team has been the run defense.

Indianapolis Colts - Couple of nice games and three tough ones.

Cleveland Browns - Browns have given up yards but against a slew of solid running teams

Washington Redskins
- Mix of poor and respectable performances

Tennessee Titans - Decidedly mediocre showings until they became the first team to let Dallas run wild.

Denver Broncos - They are constantly throwing because their porous defense leaves them constantly behind.

Atlanta Falcons - What's there to say about a team in the middle?

Miami Dolphins - Teams have hit their median rush totals against Miami.

Seattle Seahawks - Aside from the week 1 aberration, Seahawks opponents have hit their averages.

Kansas City Chiefs - Except for the week 3 aberration, Chiefs opponents have hit their averages.

San Diego Chargers - Slighty more fearsome then the middle teams.

Baltimore Ravens - Mentioned this a couple weeks ago, but the Ravens haven't stopped the run. Medium nubers with one poor showing and one good.

New York Giants - Have turned it on for two weeks, next time, we may find the Giants a D matchup.

Minnesota Vikings - We know they can stop the run. No surprises here.

Dallas Cowboys - Held 4 of 5 to below their average.

Houston Texans - They give it up through the air so easily that teams rarely bother to run.

New York Jets - A force for two week, still haven't given up 100.

Green Bay Packers - Destroyed the running games of 4 of 5 opponents.

Pittsburgh Steelers - 4 opponents posted season-low totals.

Chicago Bears - Opponents can't count on 10 sacks in a half every week.

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