Tuesday, February 3, 2009

Running Backs-The Aversion Tier

This group of players will feature backs that you don't want to draft. These guys are basically the tweeners between the second tier and third tier. For one reason or another, they're likely to get drafted higher than they should and should therefore not be targeted. To me, there is a big gap after that group of second tier rbs and after that noone stands out. I'd just as soon have Cedric Benson as opposed to someone that will go in the fourth round.

Reggie Bush-Saints
There's no justification for taking someone this injury prone in the top 3 rounds. Can you count on Bush to be there in the fantasy playoffs? Can you count on him to give you 6 games? Throw in a miserable schedule and every red light should be triggered for Bush.

Pierre Thomas-Saints
I wanted to like Thomas this year. He's the goal line back for a good offense and should be the beneficiary of the inevitable Bush injury. But the schedule, as stated, is brutal. And until Bush is injured, he is still in a committee, even assuming Deuce is gone. There is the potential for him to slip, but I feel that without schedule knowledge, he's going to go right after the second tier, maybe 18-22. I don't a committee back with a terrible schedule that high. There will likely be drafts where he slips to a lower round, in which case the upside may be worth it.

Kevin Smith-Lions
Similar situation to Thomas in that he probably gets drafted somewhere between 18 and 22 among backs. That's where he might deserve to be not counting schedule, but his schedule is simply not welcoming. So you'd have to spend a fairly high pick on a back on bad team with a bad schedule who is promising but not proven. Pass, unless he slips to where you are looking for upside.

Darren McFadden-Raiders
I talked about McFadden in my schedule post. His proclaimed value is likely to be second tier and his value, with other capable backs on the roster, is not that high. I guess there is potential to slip but my money says he gets taken too high.

Willie Parker-Steelers
He might get drafted too highly or he may not. I believe his value is close to nil. Even if he inexplicably the starter next year, he will be the third best back on a team with a terrible oline and an additional goal line back to boot. Name recognition could mean he's drafted in the low 20s, but I wouldn't take him in the last round.

Felix Jones-Cowboys
You might want to gamble on this year's Derrick Ward, but I would caution against it. He looks like he will have a good career on the field, but his fantasy career will probably start off rocky. There are three solid backs on the team. If he slips to a flier he is worth the shot but someone in your draft probably thinks too highly of him.

Ronnie Brown-Dolphins
His problems aren't new. He's splitting carries, he finished the year slowly and his team will have a much more difficult schedule. He has a big name and had some big games last year, implying someone will ignore those factors. Hopefully it isn't you.

Thomas Jones-Jets
I've documented my reluctance towards Jones both in Fantasy Fallers and the schedule. To quickly reiterate, his schedule takes a leap in difficulty, the team will be worse and he will get a smaller percentage of the tds. Because of the big points this year, he will get drafted at least with the second tier, and his value isn't that high.

Lendale White-Titans
He can't get as many tds this year. I've discussed this at length elsewhere. He didn't even put in a high percentage of his short yardage carries. Someone will look at his high point total and pick him high. He would have to really slip to be interesting because unless your in bad shape, when would you ever feel comfortable starting him.

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