Wide Receiver Preview

Tier 0

1. Andre Johnson-Texans WR1-Average Pick 7(1)
Andre Johnson is in a class by himself among receivers this year. Typically, one receiver goes into the year with a bulk of hype and gets drafted way too soon. For example, Larry Fitzgerald was taken in the top six or seven picks last year, even though you could get someone of his tier in the late second. This year is the exception. AJ is the reigning points leader, and is situation has improved. The running game in Houston can only improve. Less drives killed by second and 12 means more points for Johnson. As part of an improved offense that is already one of the best in the league, Johnson's value is unprecedented among receivers. After the first tier of backs, there is absolutely nothing wrong with picking Andre Johnson.

Tier 1

Receivers are traditionally less risky than backs. Moreover, there are fewer good receivers this year than usual. The top wideouts are pretty obvious and you can't do wrong with any of them. The first tier is separated by thin margins and all of them are solid choice with small chance of disappointing you. I'd start looking at them in the mid-second. A very nice strategy, if you end up with a high pick, is to take two of these guys in the second and third rounds. With all the running backs available in the fourth and fifth, a foundation of Ray Rice, Miles Austin and Greg Jennings looks mighty fine. Low risk, and plenty of reward.

2. Miles Austin-Cowboys WR1-Average Pick 23(8)
Established number one option on a good offense that can go deep. Absolutely no reason to expect Austin to fail to repeat his last-year success.

3. Brandon Marshall-Dolphins WR1-Average Pick 19(5)
Some people are worried about Marshall's transition to Miami, but here's the thing. He is going to a better offense. He is going to a team that can run the ball and keep drives alive. If he can light up with Kyle Orton, he can put up numbers with Chad Henne.

4. Reggie Wayne- Colts WR1-Average Pick 16(4)
Number one target for Peyton Manning. As long as Wayne is on the field, he will score points. The floor is set high here.

5. Larry Fitzgerald-Cardinals WR1-Average Pick 14(3)
Still one of the top three talents, and as I've always said, top receivers get numbers in bad situations. But without Warner, I can't pick him ahead of guys with more secure situations. UPDATE: Moving down with injury news, Jennings and White definitively ahead of him now.

6. Greg Jennings-Packers WR1-Average Pick 28(10)
I'm coming in high here but I think Jennings' value merits it. He will be the top target for the top offense. Two years ago he was a surprise(sorta) fantasy star. Last year reality sunk in a bit and Driver grabbed a larger share of the touchdowns. This year Jennings becomes the receiver he really is and establishes himself as a perennial top fantasy pick.

7. Roddy White-Falcons WR1-Average Pick 22(7)
Got it done last year, he will do it again. Unless something changes, pick him here next year and the year after as well.

8. Desean Jackson-Eagles WR1-Average Pick 26(9)
Suffers a a qb change, but we saw him in action with Kolb last year and I have to say I liked what I saw. A deep threat that can produce 6 at any time, DJax is going to get numbers.

Tier 1.5

9. Vincent Jackson-Chargers WR1-Average Pick 58(20)
A special case because he is missing three games. His overall numbers will of curse suffer but beyond that, Jackson will produce. When drafting him, remember, he is going to be there during the fantasy playoffs, when it matters. If you think you can get through the first few weeks and still make the playoffs, then go ahead and take him.

Tier 2A

Tier 2 guys have the opportunity to produce at the level of the first tier receivers. There are just some lingering questions, and they are much less of a sure thing.

10. Randy Moss-Patriots WR1-Average Pick 11(2)
While possessing the ability to finish top 5, I don't trust Moss in the event that the season turns downhill for the Patriots. A documented history of zero-effort season combined with advancing age makes me shy away from Moss well past the point where I could possibly draft him.

11. Calvin Johnson-Lions WR1-Average Pick 21(6)
The downside for CJ is what we saw last season. But with more experience at the qb position, the Lions should be good enough for Calvin to get his numbers. Stafford season 2 should produce at least well as previous Lions signal callers who allowed Calvin to be a fantasy force.

12. Sydney Rice-Vikings WR1-Average Pick 49(16)
Rice may be taken down by a failing Viking offense. There will be fewer touchdown catches overall and Rice should suffer. He does not yet have the track record that gives me faith he can still score during a team slump. UPDATE: Rice is actually a value now that he is dropping due to Favre retirement rumors.

13. Marques Colston-Saints WR1-Average Pick 21(11)
A bit of an oddball in this mix, with a lower ceiling and higher floor. He is a risk primarily because of how much the Saints spread it around. Still he is the only Saint I trust at all to get his share, and on a great offense, points will go to WR1.

Tier 2B

The tier is split because the last three have just a few more questions. In the end, they makeup the last group of wideouts that I feel comfortable with. These guys could regain their form but I'm not banking on it. While I'd rather take one of them than someone without a proven track record. All the more reason to get two top tier guys and use picks in this range on running backs. There are enough prospects in the later rounds that you can draft three guys with potential to be a third wr.

14. Steve Smith-Carolina WR 1-Average Pick 33(12)
The issue with Smith is that he did not produce last year and he is on the wrong side of 30. On the bright side, he played much better with Moore than with Delhomme. With Moore at the helm for the whole year, Smith could be alright.

15. Anquan Boldin-Ravens WR1-Average Pick 36(13)
Like Smith, Boldin has been disappointing owners recently. He also has struggled to stay healthy and is joining a new team with a qb that may not mesh with his style. Still, he has all the talent necessary for a big year and will welcome a running game that take the pressure off the receivers.

16. Chad Ochocinco-Bengals WR1-Average Pick 41(14)
Actually did alright last year and is part of a team that should still be decent. I don't think TO makes much of an impact but I worry about his ability to put up huge numbers. Why is he part of this tier? Because I have no doubt he puts up decent second-third receiver numbers.

Tier 3

From here on out, you are looking at unproven or declining players. If you didn't get two of the above receivers, you did something wrong. More than likely, you are looking for one more starter. The best solution is take two or three that have potential.

17. Michael Crabtree-49ers WR1-Average Pick 51(16)
Despite an inordinate amount of hype, Crabtree has never really done anything. He played decently at the end of the year, but not number 2 fantasy receiver good. To think he is more than a risk/reward pick is foolish. But, as I'm high on Alex Smith, and high on the Niners, he is my favorite risk/reward pick.

18. Santana Moss-Redskins WR1-Average Pick 78(28)
After one of the most up and down careers we have ever seen, Moss remains a fantasy enigma. He has practically always provided feat or famine, alternating 200-yard games with 2-catch stinkers. However, he enters 2010 with the best quarterback he has ever had and personally I think their styles will work well together. McNabb excels at the deep ball and Moss catches nothing but.

19. Donald Driver-Packers WR2-Average Pick 64(23)
The risk with Driver is that the wheels fall off. He isn't getting older and last year could have been a final hurrah. But he is worth a risk because, he put up numbers last year and is part of an offense with serious power. Even as the number two, there may be enough touchdowns going around to make Driver an every-week starter.

20. Mike Sims-Walker-Jaguars WR1-Average Pick 50(17)
MSW is, as Mrs. Larusso would call it, up-and-coming. He put up some big numbers last year, amidst overall inconsistency. He has a chance to establish himself as a bonafide starter as the only legitimate option on a struggling offense.

21. TJ Houshmandzadeh-Seahawks WR1-Average Pick 80(29)
The risk is a repeat of last year, stuck on an offense that failed to move the ball or put up touchdowns. He remains a talented receiver who has done it before and if the Seahawks can improve a little, Housh may prove a starter once again. In reality, it probably cannot be worse than last year, and TJ still had decent yardage.

22. Steve Smith-Giants WR1-Average Pick 42(15)
Although Smith put up high yardage last year, there are some doubts about his ability to repeat. Many are high on Nicks, and while I have doubts about him as well, his presence is enough to cause concern. Moreover, one year is not enough of a history to consider Smith a proven commodity. The upside is, obviously, that he puts up another 1,200 yards.

23. Pierre Garcon-Colts WR2-Average Pick 70(24)
Like the Packers, the Colts have a good enough offense to support two receivers. And like the Packers, I think the number two option for the Colts is set in stone. Anthony Gonzalez may challenge Austin Collie for the third spot, but Garcon is a lock to be opposite Reggie Wayne. There is also a chance, and here is the upside, that Garcon becomes Wayne to Wayne's Harrison.

Aversion Tier-Highly rated receivers to avoid

Percy Harvin-Vikings WR2-Average Pick 92(32)
With the dip in Viking production, Harvin is the casualty in terms of fantasy relevance. No longer a team that can support gimmicky utility men.

Robert Meacham-Saints WR-Average Pick 90(31)
I absolutely don't trust any Saints besides Colston. IN the past, I've championed Meacham as a deep sleeper because of his ability to get deep and place on a top offense, but as mid-round pick, he is far too much of a gamble.

Hines Ward-Steelers WR1 and Mike Wallace-Steelers WR2-Picks 58(19) and 80(27)
If one of these two were “the guy” I might be willing to take them. That uncertainty, combined with Ward's age and Wallace's unproven record makes me shy away. And also, there is that Big Ben suspension.

Guys that will put up decent numbers but with little chance to put big numbers. You aren't looking for steady, dependable bench guys. You want guys with a chance to start. While most of these players will put up an occasional big game, you won't be able to predict it.


Dwayne Bowe-Chiefs WR1-59(20)
Wes Welker-Patriots WR2-61(22)
Hakeem Nicks-Giants-WR2-75(25)
Braylon Edwards-Jets WR3-88(30)
Dez Bryant-Cowboys WR2-91(31)
Steve Breaston-Cardinals WR2-97(35)
Lee Evans-Bills WR1-105(37)
Jerricho Cotchery-Jets WR2-126(39)
Derrick Mason-Ravens WR2-127(40)
Devery Henderson-Saints WR-138(47)
Austin Collie-Colts WR3-141(48)

Tier 4

So who do you pick once those first 23 are gone? Well, luckily you have three of them already. That isn't too difficult as several of them are being draft much lower than 23. But once they are gone, you are looking for sleepers that could turn into a starter.

Devin Aromashadu (136(45)) and Johnnie Knox(107(38))-Bears WR1 and WR2

The Bears will be back and one of these two will break out. Which is still up in the air. Aromashadu put up some highlights at the end of last year. Knox has looked good so far this summer. Either would be a good choice as a 4th receiver with upside.

Santonio Holmes-Jets WR1-Average Pick 101(36)
Misses a few games early but this follows the Vincent Jackson rule; he will be there at the end. He is the most talented of the Jets receivers and will establish himself as the go-to guy by the fantasy playoffs.

Malcolm Floyd-Chargers WR2-Average Pick 132(42)
Great value for the first three weeks during Vincent Jackson's suspension, but possesses value of his own as the number guy in a top offense facing an easy schedule.

Jeremy Maclin-Eagles WR1-Average Pick 77(27)
Value as the potential go-to for the Eagles, who should continue to move the ball. Being drafted fairly highly for a sleeper at the moment.

Kenny Britt-Titans WR1-Average Pick 122(39)
Should be the number one option in Tennessee.


Deeper Sleepers

Chaz Schilens, Louis Murphy and Darrius Heyward-Bey-Raiders
One of these three could end up worthwhile. Based on the end of last year, I'm gravitating towards Murphy.

Arrelious Benn and Mike Williams-Bucs
I liked Benn after the draft, as there is always room for one big target on a bad team. So far in the preseason, Williams has been more impressive.

Josh Morgan-49ers WR2
Very good value this deep as Crabtree is no sure thing and Morgan could end up as the top wideout on a playoff team.

Jacoby Jones-Texans WR2
If Jones can hold off Kevin Walter and establish himself as the second option, there are enough points for in the high-flying Texan offense.

Devin Thomas-Redskins WR2
Like him as a red zone target in the new Redskin offense.

Mohammad Massaquoi-Browns WR1
Was an inconsistent threat last year. Has the possibility of becoming a consistent target this year.

Quarterback Preview

As always, the quarterbacks will be covered more lightly than running backs. The consensus tends to be closer to the mark when it comes to signal callers. Likewise I am in agreement with the majority about who the top qbs are. You can't go wrong by taking one of the solid seven and I don't think they are as far apart in value as the top guys might be in an average year. Nonetheless, I will split the top tier into two mini tiers, with the caveat that I would rather wait and take Romo in the 4th than take Rodgers in the 1st. I'd much rather have, say Gore and Romo as opposed to Rodgers and Forte.

Tier 1A

1. Aaron Rodgers-Packers-Average Pick 10(2)
Should the top backs and Andre Johnson be off the board in the late first, Rodgers is an acceptable pick.
2. Peyton Manning-Colts-Average Pick 14(3)
Too dependable and safe to pass up, if you have the choice.
3. Phil Rivers-Chargers-Average Pick 37(6)
Only concern is that his schedule is too easy, and he may not score much in 4th quarter.

4. Drew Brees-Saints-Average Pick 5(1)
Didn't Rodgers outscore him last year? Is there anything to jusify picking him that high? Yes and no.

Tier 1B

5. Matt Schaub-Falcons- Average Pick 30(5)
Bumped down half a tier because of lack of evidence he can play like last year consistently. Health concerns are overblown but present.

6. Tony Romo-Cowboys-Average Pick 38(7)
With Rivers, a good target because of where you can draft them. Good team, good targets, he will score.

7. Tom Brady-Patriots-Average Pick 19(4)
I foresee struggles in New England, just enough to notch him here.


The strategy I see myself using is to take two backs and a receiver with the first three picks, than possibly scooping Romo or Rivers in the 4th. If you can't get one of the seven, and that means three teams in a standard league, ou need to go with option 2. If you remember from last year, that means taking two guys with upside, and exploiting matchups or getting a breakout from one of them. If the guys you take don't pan out, or you suffer an injury to your choice of the solid seven, you have option 3: musical quarterbacks with the wavier wire. So while I think guys like Chad Henne will have a solid year, he isn't a good choice for option 2 because he doesn't have the upside.

Tier 2A

8. Jay Cutler-Bears-Average Pick 81(10)
Cutler was 10th among qbs last year and it was widely seen as a disaster. The line couldn't block anyone, the defense couldn't get off the field. This year, the line can only get better and the defense would have to be better even without the addition of Peppers and the return of Urlacher. Next year at this time, we will be debating him among the solids.

9. Brett Favre-Vikings-Average Pick 56(8)
We all know the upside, we saw it in 2009. The honeymoon is likely over, and the career low in interceptions is likely a fluke. His upside and floor are both greater than the guys below him. However, if I miss out on the seven, I probably wait still longer than where you need to take Favre. UPDATE: I am not changing rankings of Favre or any Viking based on speculation he might not play. I will believe Favre is retired when week 1 starts and he is not out there.

Tier 2B

10. Kevin Kolb-Eagles-Average Pick 92(12)
Young qb stepping into a good situation, with a good target like Desean Jackson and a veteran team around him. Similarly to Aaron Rodgers two years ago, I like this pick even if we knew nothing about Kolb. The inexperience means its no sure thing but in the scenario, big numbers are possible.

11. Donovan McNabb-Redskins-Average Pick 93(13)
The former Eagle is in the opposite situation as his replacement. A qb who we know can produce in a scenario that we are unsure of. The presence of Shanahan is what tips the balance for me. I feel confident the coach can utilize McNabb's abilities and put up points.

12. Alex Smith-49ers-Average Pick 139(23)
Ranked absurdly low. As long as he gets a shot he has a chance to put up big numbers against a cupcake schedule. Two prime targets and a top notch running game to take the pressure off. I'm riding the Niners this year and the means Smith makes a nice backup and a great risk/reward pick in deep leagues.

13. Matt Ryan-Falcons-Average Pick 101(14)
Should be a bounce-back year in Atlanta, and Ryan has a chance to be a solid starter. Still just a chance and he makes more sense as a low floor guy with a little extra upside.

Tier 2ALT

Eli Manning-Giants-Average Pick 90(11)
Consistently a top 10-15 quarterback, but unlikely to break out and deliver big numbers.

Chad Henne-Dolphins-Average Pick 125(19)
I think he will be fine and safe but the team if too focused on the run for him to score big.

Joe Flacco-Ravens-Average Pick 68(9)
People are getting way too excited about Flacco. He will be okay, but I don't see a breakout.

In a deeper league, other options become necessary. You may not be able to draft two second tier guys, and it may be attractive to take a sturdier option. Matt Ryan fits in here as well.

Sleepers

Matt Stafford-Average Pick 134(20)
Second year qb ready to make the leap on a team that can only get better. And he throws the ball to Calvin Johnson.

Jason Campbell-Raiders-Average Pick 146(24)
Most talented Raider quarterback since Rich "The Canon" Gannon. Campbell can throw the deep ball, he will get a shot to do that here.

Running Back Preview

Tier 1
As usual, the top ball-carriers should be the first off the board. This is even more true this year as there is no consensus top quarterback and a host of solid receivers. The value of getting one of these backs at 7 or 8 is tremendous, making those picks very desirable.

1. Chris Johnson-Feature Back-Tennessee-Average Pick 1
As the reigning top performer, CJ2k is unsurprisingly being drafted at the top. I don't believe he repeats last year's success but he doesn't have to to justify this pick. He led all running backs by 50 points last year. An expected drop-off would cut his lead down to around 10. A poor showing would still be in the top 5. He is entering his third year so he shouldn't be wearing down yet. Schedule: Good stud schedule with lots of mid-level games. Not as easy as last year but still above average.

2. Ray Rice-Feature Back-Baltimore-Average Pick 4
From my February post, "Love him. The talent, the situation, its all there. Who wouldn't want to run behind Mike Oher the next 4 years?" Nothing has changed since then. Rice should not disappoint, running behind the best line in the league, he likely has the lowest floor of any back. The only negative is the tough schedule in his division, going twice against a Steeler D that should still be tough, and the healthy front seven of the Bengals.

3. Frank Gore-Feature Back-San Francisco-Average Pick 8(6)
Gore always puts up numbers when he is in the game. I'd rather have a beast like Frank that misses a few games and scores big than someone puts up lower numbers but stays healthy. I'm high on the 49ers this year, a better passing game and improved line means Gore could be top 6 even missing a couple. If he stays healthy, watch out. A steal in the late first. Schedule: Best in the league, 5 prime matchups. The only trouble spot should be against Green Bay.

4. Steven Jackson-Feature Back-St Louis-Average Pick 7(5)
It can't be worse than last year. The team can't be worse. The defense and line can't be worse. And Jackson was 10th. He also picks up an easier schedule, in fact one of the 4 best, going up against the AFC West and of course the NFC West.

5. Maurice Jones-Drew-Feature Back-Jacksonville-Average Pick 3
Last year's second place finisher is hampered by a poor overall team and a lack of late game leads. Still, his team wasn't exactly a world-beater and he was second last year. Look for a repeat of that success, against a somewhat harder schedule. It is not a bottom half schedule, expect more of the same from the touchdown machine.

6. Adrian Peterson-Feature Back-Minnesota-Average Pick 2
I don't like Minnesota this year and consequently, don't like Peterson. A running back who looks increasingly sluggish behind a line that is in decline to say the least is not promising. I would not be surprised to see Peterson slip further than this, but he is not the 2 pick to say the least. Schedule: Easily the toughest among the top 6 backs. with 5 tougher games and few gimmes.



Tier 2
The first tier should be the first 6 off the board. The second is at your discretion. It is reasonable to take Andre Johnson before the second tier. In general, the first tier of receivers is equal in value to the second tier of running backs. However, with the limited amount of reliable wideouts in 2010, you may be tempted to lock one of them up rather than take one of these backs, where there may be rb value in later rounds.

7. Ryan Grant-Feature Back-Green Bay-Average Pick 18(11)
This situation is too tough to pass up. The feature back on the best team in football. With the Packers consistently leading, Grant will score more touchdowns and Rodgers fewer. They will not likely pass in the red zone as often. A plethora of late game leads and red zone touches will put Grant in the top ten. A clear target in auction leagues and a must take in the mid second round. With the seventh pick, and the 6 off the board, I debate long and hard between Grant and Andre Johnson. Technically, he could be considered tier 1.5. Schedule: Middle of the pack but few games that will give him trouble.

8. Ryan Matthews-Feature Back-San Diego-Average Pick 26(13)
The perceived value of the Charger rookie has finally caught up to the actual value. While not the 4th round steal that he was in early mocks, he is still a value in the second round. Norv contributed to that process, publicly stating the amount of carries Matthews would get. Like Chris Johnson a few years ago, Matthews is entering a perfect scenario. Feature back on a good offense with an easy schedule. As long he has the talent of a mailbox, you would be crazy not to turn your life upside down and draft him. Schedule: The second easiest, and the easy schedules this year are better than usual, thanks to the AFCW/NFCW showdown. Matthews will clean up these cupcakes.

9. Rashard Mendenhall-Feature Back-Pittsburgh-Average Pick 12(8)
The second tier after Grant is pretty even. They all have potential. They all have a question. It is mostly a matter of preference, so ignore the numbers and think about the facts. Mendenhall is on a team that could struggle offensively in a division of tough defenses. The line has been less than satisfactory. But, he did fine last year in the same scenario. The team has always focused on the run and will do so even more with Big Ben. I pegged Mendenhall as a sleeper for two years(only once successfully.) Now my opinion fits right into the mainstream. Schedule: One of the tougher ones, at least 5 games will pose problems for the oline.

10. Cedric Benson-Feature Back-Cincinnati-Average Pick 21(12)
I feel Benson has one more solid year in him. I feel Cincinnati had a rash of injuries at the end of last season and the the defense will be solid. However, I worry about both of these predictions. Everything is in place for the Bengals but it could fall apart all too easily. High risk/reward pick, but one of the last few feature backs. Schedule: A lot of medium difficulty games on a schedule that is surprisingly mediocre.

11. Michael Turner- Feature Back-Falcons-Average Pick 9(7)
Turner is lower risk/reward than his tier mates. That makes him a better first round pick in essence, however, he is likely gone before there is value in picking him. With the second tier guys, you are looking for the one who slips to the second round, and that will rarely be Turner. All the same, he has an easier schedule than last year, although not as easy as the cupcakes he faced in 08. It should be a bounce-back year for the Falcons, and I wager Turner capitalizes on that to finish top 10.



Tier 3
Number 2 fantasy backs are a tricky species. At least one of them will slip to the early 4th, so it will be very tempting to take a receiver in round 3. Most drafts will play out with the last of the go-to wideouts coming off the board in round 3. More than likely, the smart play will be to take one of them, and grab the tier 3 back that drops to you in the 4th. This tier is mostly guys with high upside, and considerable questions.

12. Shonn Greene-Lead Back-Jets-Average Pick 20(11)
Questions: Tomlinson's presence. Team falling back. Reasons: Greene showed something at the end of the year and you have to think he is the man going forward. I like his future prospects, but I like Greene 2011 more than Greene 2010. I worry about what LDT will do to Greene's numbers, especially on the goal line. Tomlinson will pout if he doesn't get the when they are on the one, and the Jets may placate him like Norv did last year. Secondly, the disastrous Tomlinson touches may play a part in the fading team success that I see for the Jets this year. The upside is there, and he is being drafted based on that. I don't want to be stuck with a guy that gets pulled at the goal line. Schedule: Slightly harder than average.

13. Joseph Addai-Lead Back-Colts-Average Pick 42(20)
Questions: Donald Brown will take away carries. Health risk. Reasons: There is so much value to being the Colts running back, that it surprising how low Addai is being drafted coming off a top 10 year. Yes, Brown was injured and will be back, but Addai's value wasn't in stockpiling yards. It was in finishing off Peyton Manning's drives with 2-yard touchdowns. He should still do that as even when Brown was healthy, Addai still got the goal line carries. If the analysts thought Brown was going to take that many carries, shouldn't he be ranked a lot higher? There is a disconnect and both Colts are ranked too low. Schedule: On the easy side of average. Lots of middle level games.

14. Dangelo Williams-Lead Back-Carolina-Average Pick 15(9)
Question: Timesplit. Reasons: Success in timesplit over 2 years. Opinions vary about the two Panther backs, and while Williams has had demonstrably greater success with the same line on the same team, this is as high as I'm willing to go for a guy that is projected to get half the carries on an average at best team. He will do fine but aside from a Stewart injury, there is not a lot of upside here. Schedule: On the hard side of average.

15. Ronnie Brown-Lead Back-Miami-Average Pick 46(22)
Question: Injury risk. Timesplit. Reasons: Miami is an upward moving team, meaning more points for a pair of backs that already scored in bunches. Brown may be counted on to miss a few games but when he is in, he should score big. As always, I will take the guy that scores and goes out, allowing you to play someone else, over someone who clogs up your roster with low scoring games. Schedule: Full slate of easy, medium and hard games, with the quirk of the best schedule for fantasy playoffs.

16. LeSean McCoy-Lead Back-Philadelphia-Average Pick 32(17)
Question: Inexperience. Reasons: The Eagles are still a decent team with a good offense. McCoy is the only back that fits the system. He will have too many opportunities to put up points to avoid taking him ahead of backs on bad teams, even if they are more talented or have done it before. Schedule: Almost entirely middle-level games, the kind a stud back would dominate and a border starter would struggle against.

17. Knowshon Moreno-Lead Back-Denver-Average Pick 21(14)
Question: Team offense. Late season slip. Reason: I've always been a fan of the former UGA back, but I apparently am more scared of his team quality than the majority. The second half of Denver's season exposed their start as a fluke and I don't think they make much noise this year. Moreno has a future but I doubt he is a fantasy star just yet. Schedule: Top 6 schedule is the main quality in his favor, 7 advantageous games. UPDATE: Preseason injury should not affect his performance too much. Unless it leads to them bringing in another back, I would only bump him down below Charles.

18. Jamaal Charles-Lead Back-Chiefs-Average Pick 31(16)
Questions: Poor offense. Poor oline. Thomas Jones taking carries. Reasons: Charles is a beast. At the end of last year, he was running over defenses behind the same line that didn't produce for Larry Johnson. Thomas Jones should not be a factor, who has had success running behind strong lines on teams with good defenses. That is not the Cheifs. However, this is the flip side to the Addai situation. Somehow the experts have Charles ranked above Addai and Jones above Donald Brown. This is sheer lunacy. There are many more points to be had in the Colts offense than in the Chiefs. Schedule: Very light, as long as he starts the year he should keep his job.



Tier 4
This tier is compose of of third rbs, guys with high potential but substantial risk. Backups that give you a chance to breakout and do something. You should probably try to get at least one. In a deep league, a nice strategy is to take one top tier back and two of these guys. That way you double your chances of hitting big.

19. Pierre Thomas-Lead Back-Saints-Average Pick 38(19)
If Thomas got the majority of the carries on a good offense like the Saints, he would be atop 10 pick. Unfortunately, I, and many others, do not trust Sean Payton to give him the carries he needs. More than likely, he splits up the carries three ways again. Making matters worse is Payton's tendency to give Reggie Bush goal-line carries. However, the potential is there to have a knockout season. Schedule: Middle of the road with a full slate.

20. Felix Jones-Committee Back-Cowboys-Average Pick 49(23)
Jones could break out in a big way. He is probably the best of the Cowboys backs at the moment. The problem is that Marion Barber is the definite goal line guy. On an offense like the Cowboys, there will be enough yards to make Jones a decent spot starter. If anything happens to Barber(an injury prone guy,) Jones will be a lot more than that. Schedule: All middle range matchups, making it tough if he's splitting carries. If he get the majority he will excel.

21. Jonathan Stewart-Committee Back-Panthers-Average Pick 35(18)
Some analysts have Stewart as high as 10. This is foolish. He could end up that high, but so could Felix Jones or Pierre Thomas. On a mediocre team like Carolina, a second back just isn't worth more than a late-4th. He has been worse than teammate Dangelo Williams per carry for two years now. He needs Williams to miss games to be an obvious starter.

22. Matt Forte-Lead Back-Bears-Average Pick43(21)
Forte was outstanding two years ago and awful last year. He could be the feature back of a rising offense or lose his job to Chester Taylor. He is the definition of risk/reward. I'm high on the Bears and like the idea of taking a risk on at least one of these guys. More than anything, the oline couldn't possibly be worse. Decent schedule if he was the star we thought he was a year. Not enough prime games that 2009 Forte could put up points on.

23. Ben Tate-Lead Back-Texans-Average Pick 86(35)
Could be considered a sleeper, but I think he chances of starting are as good as Forte's and much better than Stewart's. If he is, then he is the lead back for one of the best offenses in the league. At the least, the failures of Texan backs on the goal line last year should give Tate first crack at red zone chances. Potentially, you can get a starting quality rb in the the 8th round. Schedule: On the tougher side, Tate will be hoping Schaub can throw him into the red zone. UPDATE: It looks Tate is out for the year, immediately slide Arians Foster into this spot. Foster has less competition for this spot than Tate did. Foster ended 2009 with two good names, we know as much about him as we did about Tate.

24. Brandon Jacobs-Lead Back-Giants-Average Pick 51(24)
A potential, goal line/workhorse back on a mediocre team. The upside of what Jamaal Charles probably ends up being. The downside is a potential disaster. Jacobs was just not good last year. With his size and style, he may be hitting the downward slope of his career early. Most likely he ends up a serviceable matchup starter. Unfortunately, against the second toughest schedule, those will be few and far-between.

25. Marion Barber-Lead Back-Cowboys-Average Pick 69(29)
The starting back of one of the best teams that has the edge for the goal line carries is ranked awfully low here. But injury risk and push from a young speedy back for carries will do that. Potentially, Barber stay healthy, scores a bushel of touch downs and becomes a steal. The alternative is Jones getting the bulk and going from future rb to present rb.

26. Ricky Williams-Committee Back-Dolphins- Average Pick 52(25)
Williams showed that he still has some in the tank. His problem is Ronnie Brown is ahead of him on the depth chart. The potential is there on a strong running team like Miami. But Williams' age and timesplit makes him too risky to take before this point.

27. Donald Brown-Committee Back-Colts-Average Pick 108(41)
Since everyone is convinced Brown is going to take carries away from Joseph Addai, you would think he would be ranked higher. Count your blessings, he is a steal. Potentially, he could be the top back on the number one offense. Why would you ever take guys that are potential top backs on awful teams ahead of him?(see tier 5) Even in a split on the Colts, he has value. Should Addai much talked-about injury-proneness appear, Brown is a top 10 guy.



Tier 5
They lack the upside of a tier 4 back but have a better shot to be solid as they have the pole position to be the lead back on a team that won't necessarily put up as many points. The value in these guys is as dependable starters in very deep leagues. Not ideal third or 4th backs.

28. Jahvid Best-Feature Back-Lions-Average Pick 64(27)
While Kevin Smith was wildly overrated last year, it seems people have picked up on the fact that being a feature back doesn't mean much when you're on the Lions. Schedule: Medium difficulty.

29. Beanie Wells-Lead Back-Cardinals-Average Pick 29(15)
No Warner means the Cards are on the decline, Not to the Lions level, but with Hightower lurking on the goal line, Wells will have a hard time putting up points. Schedule: Favorable, with many favorable matchups.

30. Darren McFadden-Lead Back-Raiders-Average Pick 84(34)
The Raiders running game should be string but McFadden will share the load with Micheal Bush. Still, he should put up points against that easy schedule. Dependable, but without much upside.



Avoidables

Overrated backups:

Thomas Jones-Second Back-Chiefs
Running behind the worst line, on a team with the worst passing game and the worst defense of his career.

Reggie Bush-Committee Back-Saints
Zero dependability.

Tim Hightower-Goal Line Back-Cardinals
The goal line carries dry up without Kurt Warner to toss it into the red zone.


Timesplits on a bad team: They are bad enough on a good team, but on a bad team, there is no reason to take a committee back, except as a late sleeper. Even then....

Jerome Harrison and Montario Hardesty: Cleveland.
Harrison had a nice end of the year but if Cleveland though he was that good, they wouldn't have picked Hardesty so soon. He will get a share, and a full load in Cleveland is barely draftable. Moreover, this is the toughest schedule in the league. Not many 300 yard games in there.

Fred Jackson, CJ Spiller and Marshawn Lynch: Buffalo
Too many guys with too few TDs, especially if Lynch is getting the goal line and nothing but. Also, they face one of the toughest slate of defenses.

Justin Forsett, Leon Washington and Julius Jones: Seattle
Even if Forsett gets the majority, is that worth drafting him? You take a risk to get an upside of a third running back? Schedule: Mediocre.



Sleepers

Michael Bush-Committee Back-Raiders-Average Pick 106(39)
According to Heyward-Bey could end up carrying the load.

Steve Slaton-Committee Back-Texans-Average Pick 145(49)
Astonishing low considering the way he played two years ago. If he gets it together, you have a starting back on a top 5 offense in the last round.

Willis McGahee-Goal Line Back-Ravens-Average Pick 137(48)
Value as a spot starter just for his goal line thefts. The Ravens running game and line is strong enough to support two backs. More so than Carolina.

Chester Taylor-Committee Back-Chicago-Average Pick 118(45)
If he plays third down back, he still has more value than this. Anything goes wrong with Forte and old Chester is suddenly quite a steal.



Notable Handcuffs
No point in handcuffing someone if their backup isn't going to preform. I wouldn't bother with cuffing Chris Johnson, because whoever goes in isn't getting close to is numbers. The handcuff is better executed when the starting back receives a portion of his value from the line or situation.

Toby Gerhart-Vikings
I have a feeling Peterson goes down this year. Gerhart should do decently.

Brandon Jackson-Packers
Such a good situation, I'd play LaDanian Tomlinson if he was starting for Green Bay.

Lynell Hamilton-Saints
A bit more than a handcuff, but should be drafted as one by anyone who takes Pierre Thomas.

Jonathan Dwyer-Steelers
I just think the rookie has potential. If he gets a shot, he could priduce.

Jason Snelling-Falcons
Did well in his spots last year.



Scenarios to keep an eye on

Washington and New England are completely unclear at the moment. Both should be decent teams and sport fantasy value at the running back position, if we knew who might get the bulk of the carries. Noone is quite draftable but don't forget these teams exist.

Top Tiers

An early look at the tiers at each position and the early drafting strategy it entails.

Running backs

Chris Johnson
Ray Rice
Frank Gore
Maurice Jones-Drew
Adrian Peterson
Steven Jackson


Wide Receivers

Andre Johnson


Quarterbacks

Aaron Rodgers
Drew Brees
Peyton Manning
Phil Rivers
Matt Schaub
Tom Brady
Tony Romo


The big six running backs are so far ahead of the pack that there is no reason for them not not to come off the board 1-6. The order is arguable, but I'd question the sanity of someone who wanted to swap one of them with another back. Chris Johnson was 50 points ahead of second last year. MJD and Peterson were the next two rbs last year and their situations haven't changed that much. Rice has the best line in football and he is now established as the feature back in Baltimore. Gore benefits from an improved line and what I believe will be a more consistent passing game and better team play. Jackson finished in the top 10 last year and his situation couldn't possibly be worse. My biggest doubts are about AD, who faces a worsening team situation and a declining line.

The tough question is what to do with the seventh pick. At the point, I'd probably take Andre Johnson. He is in a class by himself among receivers this year. The seventh and eighth picks are probably the worst spots this year. You end up hoping that one of the second tier backs slips. to 13 or 14.

The 9-10 picks seem superior, because they offer a greater opportunity of taking two second tier backs and solidifying the position.

Second Tier Backs

Ryan Grant
Cedric Benson
Rashard Mendenhall
Michael Turner
Ryan Matthews(value only)
Dangelo Williams

The problem, if you run out of these guys in the second, you don't really want to take a receiver in the early-mid second. The second tier or receivers will last until the early-mid third. That's why you are better off picking in the top 6 and
taking two top receivers when it comes back around. That strategy pays off as there is running back value in the 4th round and even into the early 5th. In the first few mocks I've done, I've taken Matthews in the early 5th, even though his ranking is much lower than that. If his ranking rises, that strategy may not work, but as of now, he is a second round value in the 4th.


Quarter backs is a tricky situation. There are only seven ,which isn't enough to go around. Taking a top qb may be a good, safe play, especially if you end up in an awkward spot and miss out on second tier backs or receivers. Like always, if you don't manage to land a reliable quarterback, you need to take two that you like the upside of.

Upside Quarterbacks

Jay Cutler
Brett Favre
Kevin Kolb
Donovan McNabb
Joe Flacco
Alex Smith

Second Tier Receivers

Very deep with a lot of options, but there really isn't an obvious beginning. Who is the number 2 receiver this year? An argument for several guys.

Larry Fitzgerald
Miles Austin
Reggie Wayne
Brandon Marshall
Vincent Jackson
Roddy White
Randy Moss
Desean Jackson
Calvin Johnson

The last three have more question marks than the rest. 2-7 are pretty solid and reliable with plenty of upside. DJax has a new qb, Moss has effort issues and CJ was disappointing last year, but all three have as much upside as the rest of the tier, and any of these 9 could end up number 2. Jennings and Rice aren't too far behind either. Lower tiers will be explored after a schedule analysis.

Offseason Minings-Draft Report-Receivers

Bringing up the rear are the wideouts. Traditionally, rookie receivers haven't had much impact. The sophomore breakout was the cliche. In recent years, rookies like Desean Jackson have turned conventional wisdom on its head. Let's take a look at the guys who could breakout this year.


Demaryius Thomas-Denver-Round 1
Not a great scenario. I don't like Denver much, and theoretically, he is behind Stokely and Royal on the depth chart. They could be starting Tebow at some point and I doubt Thomas is a jump-throw catcher.

Dez Bryant-Dallas-Round 1
Interesting. The talent is there and he should be the number 2 wr early in the year, catching passes from Romo. The problem is that everyone knows this and he isn't much of a sleeper compared to other rookies. But if he slips, he probably puts up the best rookie numbers.

Arrelious Benn-Tampa-Round 2
My favorite sleeper right now. No profile means you can take him just before your kicker. On a bad team that will throw till the end, and with a dearth of receiving threats. Chance at being the top target and putting up a classic Tampa year in the mold of Clayton, Galloway or Bryant.

Golden Tate-Seattle-Round 2
Not a great candidate to break out this year. Housh gets most of the targets in Seattle and that won't change.

Damian Williams-Tennessee-Round 3
I like Williams long term to start alongside Britt in the long term. In the short term, he is not worth drafting but keep an eye on the first few weeks for a pickup.

I'm a little bit interested in Jacoby Ford in Oakland, Mardy Gilyard in St Louis and the two Carolina guys. But like Williams, I'd rather wait and see how they do the first few weeks.

Offseason Minings- Draft Report

First, a reiteration: I don't watch much college football. I've seen a few of these players but not enough to truly judge their talent levels. Fortunately, this is not necessary for fantasy football. Value is highly dependent on situation. Situations can be analyzed independently of player ability, taking into account player type, and some faith in NFL offices to analyze talent.


Running Backs

CJ Spiller-Buffalo-Round 1
A lot of hype around Spiller will probably lead to him being overdrafted. Regardless of talent, he is at best the lead back of a losing team in a tough decision. More likely he splits carries. Worst case he is a 3rd down back. I will be steering clear.

Ryan Matthews-San Diego-Round 1
The true fantasy gem of the draft. Much like Chris Johnson 2 years ago, Matthews is entering a perfect scenario. Any half-decent running back would put up good numbers here. I don't expect Norv to continue the devotion he showed to LDT but there will be plenty of red zone chances. He has zero competition for the spot and the top passing attack in football will get him those shots. This is a top 12 back by season's end.

Jahvid Best-Detroit-Round 1
Wake me up when the Lions aren't another terrible team in a good division. Will he even wrestle the top spot in Motown away from Kev Smith? Potential late round flier, but that is all.

Dexter McCluster-Kansas City-Round 2
Probably not worth a flier. I doubt he has the talent that Charles does. They don't have a good line. Sure a schedule of soft run defenses is nice, but....there is really nothing to be excited about here.

Toby Gerhart-Minnesota-Round 2
A perplexing pick. Why not just keep Taylor. Peterson has never split carries. One play that I have seen and like from a talent perspective, but in Minnesota he has handcuff value only.

Ben Tate-Houston-Round 2
Here is a pick with some fantasy value. Houston needed exactly what Tate brings, and he should fit in nicely with Slaton in a timesplit. He should also be the recipient of goal line carries, a problem for Houston last year. He will put up points this year, probably the second highest scoring fantasy rookie.

Montario Hardesty-Cleveland-Round 2
Too many backs on a bad team to consider drafting a Brown. The only thing he does is ruin the value of Jerome Harrison.

Joe McKnight-New York-Round 4
There is some value here, given that Shonn Green is injury prone, and Tomlinson is finished. More of a mid-season pick up than a late-round flier, though. Wait and see.


Quarterbacks

Sam Bradford-St Louis-Round 1
There is rarely a reason to draft a rookie qb. Bradford is no exception. They may let him learn, and even if he plays, he will play for St Louis. Unless you are in a league that qbs score points for sacks.

Jimmy Clausen-Carolina-Round 2
Clausen could be the exception. He finds himself in a very good position, behind a good offensive line with a big downfield target and a running game to take the pressure off. If he gets a chance to start, he could produce right away. We should have a better idea about his role close to the season but he could a flier or even a starter in deep leagues.


Tight Ends

Jermaine Gresham-Cincinnati-Round 1
Real life starter on day 1, solid fantasy backup. Talented guy provides a real threat for a Bengals team that I like.

Ron Gronkowski-Patriots-Round 2
Potentially a good situation, but it seemed like they were talking about this guy as a project as opposed a immediate impact player. Draft at risk.


Wide Receivers

coming soon....

Offseason MInings-Marshall Plan

The long awaited Marshall trade finally happened. As much as I didn't like the move for Seattle I love it for Miami. Whereas the Seahawks were much more than a receiver away from contending, the Fins are a team I already liked to take their division and moreover, were primarily lacking a number one receiver. I'd previously mentioned they had a stable of No 3 wideouts. Now they add a top 5 talent to a team with a young qb I feel pretty good about and a top 5 running game anchored by Jake Long. It's a great team move, but how does it affect fantasy?

Not too much, in all honesty. It's a slight boost for Marshall, but he was already going top 7, and it's not that different of a situation for him.

It's a bigger boost for Henne, but not really enough to make him more than a backup. He is still a low risk backup, not the high risk type you want in the late rounds. His value is the highest in deep leagues, as he makes a solid starter that you can pick up in midrounds in 16 team leagues.

Drop in value for the aforementioned stable of Fin wideouts. Marshall tends to hog the catches. I doubt I could draft one of those guys now.

Drop for Orton but you weren't taking him anyways.

Nice boost for Ronnie Brown. Marshall means more red zone chances for Brown. Of course, Brown has traditionally been limited by injuries more than anything else.