Four QBs should be on the top of everyone's list next year. Personally, I don't think you should be drafting any of them. They're going to go very high and you should be drafting your ground game. But you can bet that Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Tony Romo will rightfully come off the board first. Romo has the most potential to slip and the possibility should be on your radar. Brady is the biggest risk, and thus someone you want to avoid at all cost in 2009. Remember general strategy, you should be drafting low risk at the top of the draft and high risk at the end. We don't know how Brady will heal, so I wouldn't draft him in the first two rounds, and someone will. Overall, I don't think the gap between these 4 and the next three is that high. You could likely get one of the second three after establishing your rbs or grabbing one of the big seven receiver.
Aaron Rodgers
Rodgers should only improve in his second year starting. His receiving corps is as good as anyone's. I actually like Rodgers the best of these three, because of the great AFC North schedule.(This will be a separate post)
Phil Rivers
Rivers is third right now. There is no reason to believe he will drop next year, other than the return of Brady and 16 games from Romo. Yet he will most likely fall much lower in the draft than those four. Take advantage.
Jay Cutler
Denver's offense is great; the defense is bad. Translation, lots of passes, from the first kickoff to the final whistle. The line is good, the receivers are good, and he regularly plays the Raiders and Chiefs.
One other guy, Kurt Warner, will likely be mentioned alongside the top 4. I am not buying it. Warner should be avoided at all costs. I can't discount the possibility that Leinart doesn't get the nod midseason, if Warner has a few bad games. He is also old. He is more likely to decline than improve, so if you see him ranked ahead of guys who finished behind in 2008, rejoice that someone will take him too soon.
Tyler Thigpen is another guy that should be on your radar. He is a better fantasy qb than an actual qb, and his rushing yards and tds make him a great midrounder. His performance in limited games this year was excellent and it won me one title. I would project Thigpen as the 8th qb on the board if we knew for certain that he would be starting next year. Keep an eye out, if the Chiefs acknowledge him as the starter, pick him.
I also really like Matt Ryan next year. The ROY candidate has targets, a distracting running game and team on the way up. Feel very comfortable with him as a starter. If you don't manage to get one of the second tier, Ryan or Thigpen are your guys. If your in a ten team league, you can get the last qb taken as a starter and not be that bad off.
Late Round fliers: Kyle Orton and Tavaris Jackson. In a deep league, you might want to select one of these two as your backup. They have favorable schedules, and played less than 16 games in 2008. They should slip and have potential. And at the end of the draft you want that high risk with potential reward.
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