Week 17, can't be that bad

Supercontest (38-40-2)

Bills -3.5 over Jets
Texans -6.5 over Colts
Bucs +3.5 over Falcons
Packers -3.5 over Vikings
Panthers +5.5 over Saints


All Picks (82-67-3)  

Cowboys +3 over Redskins
Browns +6 over Steelers
Giants -7 over Eagles

Week 16

Supercontest (36-37-2)

Bucs -3 over Rams
Chargers +2.5 over Jets
Bears -5.5 over Cards
Bills +4.5 over Dolphins
Eagles +5.5 over Redskins


All Picks (79-61-2)  

Texans -7.5 over Vikings
Bengals +4 over Steelers
Raiders +8 over Panthers
Lions +3.5 over Falcons
Cowboys -3 over Saints

Week 15, the week of weeks

Supercontest (33-35-2)

Titans -2 over Jets
Cowboys +1.5 over Steelers
Lions -6 over Cards
Raiders -3 over Chiefs
Giants +1.5 over Falcons


All Picks (74-56-2)  

Rams -3 over Vikings
Chargers -3 over Panthers
Texans -8 over Colts
Broncos -2.5 over Ravens
Bears +3 over Packers
Bengals -3.5 over Eagles
Dolphins -7 over Jaguars

Week 14, ummm wow

Supercontest (30-33-2)

Bears -3 over Vikings
Panthers +3.5 over Falcons
Bills -3 over Rams
Chargers +7 over Steelers
Browns -6.5 over Chiefs

All Picks (67-53-2)  


Titans +5 over Colts
Jags +2.5 over Jets
Seahawks -10.5 over Cards
Giants -5 over Saints
Cowboys +3 over Bengals

Week 13, in which seven stand out from the pack

Supercontest (29-29-2)

Chargers +1.5 over Bengals
Bears -3.5 over Seahawks
Lions -5 over Colts
Panthers -3 over Chiefs
Texans -6 over Titans

All Picks (65-48-2)  


Bills -6 over Jags
Saints +4 over Falcons

Week 12, yikes

Supercontest (28-27)

Texans -3 over Lions
Cowboys -3.5 over Redskins
Bucs +1 over Falcons
Panthers -2.5 over Eagles
Packers +3 over Giants


All Picks (59-44)  


Patriots -7 over Jets
Bengals -8 over Raiders
Broncos -10.5 over Chiefs
Jags +3 over Titans
Bears -4.5 over Vikings
Chargers +1 over Ravens
49ers -2 over Saints

Week 11 in which disaster ineveitably follows victory

Supercontest (25-25)

Cowboys -7.5 over Browns
Bengals -3 over Chiefs
Steelers +3.5 over Ravens
Rams -3 over Jets
Packers -3 over Lions

All Picks (54-44)  

Cards +9.5 over Falcons
Pats -9.5 over  Colts
Texans -15 over Jags
Raiders +4.5 over Saints
49ers -4 over Bears

Week Ten, in which I enter with a respectable record for the first time in a long time

Supercontest (23-22)

Giants -4 over Bengals
Fins -6 over Titans
Saints +2.5 over Falcons
Broncos -3.5 over Bucs
Lions -2.5 over Vikings

All Picks (49-39)  


Colts -3.5 over Jags
Seahawks -7.5 over Jets
Raiders +7.5 over Ravens
Patriots -11 over Bills
Cowboys -1.5 over Eagles

Week 9 in which the 19th-century chapter headings become a burden

Supercontest (19-21)

Fins -2.5 over Colts
Lions -3.5 over Jags
Bears -3.5 over Titans
Broncos -3.5 over Bengals
Seahawks - 4.5 over Vikings

All Picks (39-37)  

Chargers - 7.5 over Chiefs
Packers -11 over Cards
Ravens -3.5 over Browns
Texans -10.5 over Bills
Panthers +3 over Redskins
Bucs +1.5 over Raiders
Giants -3 over Steelers

Week Eight in which the back door closes

Supercontest (17-18)

Eagles -2.5 over Falcons
Lions - 2 over Seahawks
Packers - 14 over Jags
Chargers -2.5 over Browns
Broncos -6 over Saints


All Picks (33-33)

Bucs +6.5 over Vikes
Fins +2 over Jets
Raiders +2 over Chiefs
Pats -7 over Rams
Bears -7.5 over Panthers

Week Seven, in which Vegas loses its mind

Supercontest (14-15)

Bills -3.5 over Titans
Colts -3 over Browns
Texans -6.5 over Ravens
Packers -5.5 over Rams
Giants - 5.5 over Redskins


All Picks (29-27)

Bears -6.5 over Lions
Cowboys - 2.5 over Panthers
Pats -10.5 over Jets
Bengals +2.5 over Steelers
Raiders -4.5 over Jags

Week Six in whichI feel good about nothing

Supercontest (11-13)

Bucs -3.5 over Chiefs
Dolphins -3.5 over Rams
Titans +5.5 over Steelers
Bengals over Browns
Redskins +2.5 over Vikings


All Picks (24-24)

Giants +4.5 over Niners
Cowboys +3.5 over Ravens
Pats - 3.5 over Seahawks

Week Five, in which it all starts to make sense

Supercontest (9-11)

Ravens -5 over Chiefs
Eagles +3.5 over Steelers
Bears -6 over Jags
Packers -7 over Colts
Texans - 8 over Jets 


All Picks (19-19)

Giants -8.5 over Browns
Broncos +6.5 over Patriots
Rams +1 over Cards
Dolphins +3 over Bengals
Panthers -3 over Seahawks

Week four, in which the ship is somewhat righted, but the Seahawks Packers continues to haunt me

Supercontest (6-9)

Lions -6.5 over Vikings
Packers -7.5 over Saints

Niners -4 over Jets
Chargers -1 over Chiefs
Texans -12 over Titans

All Picks (12-17)

Browns +12 over Ravens
Rams +2.5 over Seahawks
Patriots -4 over Bills
Bengals -2.5 over Jaguars

Week three, in which the season begins to spiral out of control.

Supercontest (4-6)

Bills -3 over Browns
Eagles -4 over Cardinals
Lions -3.5 over Titans
Texans -2.5 over Broncos
Packers - 3 over Seahawks

All Picks (8-11)

Cowboys -7 over Bucs
Bears -7.5 over Rams
Niners -7 over Vikings
Giants over Panthers
Saints -8.5 over Chiefs

Week two, in which I attempt to come back from my worst start in years.

Supercontest (2-3)

Dallas -3 over Seattle

Houston -7 over Jacksonville

Oakland -2.5 over Miami

San Diego -6 over Tennessee
Washington -3 over St Louis 

All Picks (6-7)


New England -13.5 over Arizona

Cincy -8 over Cleveland

Buffalo -3 over Kansas City

Indy +1 over Minnesota

Broncos +3 over Falcons
Bears +6 over Packers

Week One Picks

Here we go? First the fake Supercontest picks, where I attempt to improve on my hypothetical 16th place finish.

Bears -9.5 over Colts
Eagles -8.5 over Browns
Pats -5.5 over Titans
Lions - 7 over Rams
Saints - 5 over Redskins


And the rest.

Cowboys +2.5 over Giants
Bills +2.5 over Jets
Chiefs +2.5 over Falcons
Raiders over Chargers
Packers - 5 over Niners
Cardinals +1.5 over Seahawks
Broncos +1.5 over Steelers
Texans -13 over Dolphins

2012 Super Bowl Odds

So the early odds are out. Let's take a look. Teams in bold are bettable.

Green Bay-6:1 They certainly should be the favorite and are the most likely champion. Not a terrible bet, I wouldn't be surprised if the odds are closer to 3.5:1 in September. Could the defense and running game be worse next year?

New England-7:1 Sucker's bet. There is no way this team at present can make it back to the Super Bowl.

New Orleans-8:1 This is about where I expected the Saints odds to be. It's not fair odds since navigating the NFC playoffs will be tricky, and though the Saints have the easiest division in the NFC now, they still aren't as good as several other NFC teams. They have a chance, but not with these odds.

Houston-10:1 Vegas nailed this one. Houston ended the season looking like the best team in the AFC and like New Orleans, should clean up on the worst division in the conference. I would certainly pick Houston to go to the Super Bowl. However winning it against the NFC Champ is another story.

Philly-13:1 This is another pick right in that sweet spot, where the odds start to be higher, but the teams are just as good as the teams with half the payoff.

Steelers-13:1
Ravens-14:1 Which of these teams looks like its window is closing? Certainly Pittsburgh's window is closing faster than Baltimore's. Pitt has a quarterback that can't stay healthy, a terrible oline, and an aging defense that can no longer compensate for the above

NY Giants-15:1 This is fair, considering what teams are around them, but is this team a repeat champion? No way. Staying far away from this pick.

San Francisco-17:1 This isn’t terrible, the odds are in that sweet spot, but I would like to see the odds go over 20 to give them a shot. With the improved AFC West, it will be tougher for the Niners to secure a buy, and thus to beat the teams coming out of the North and East.

San Diego-19:1 Without that mid-season swoon, San Diego might be celebrating right now. If they had fired Norv Turner, these odds might be a lot lower. I don’t want to bet on Turner but San Diego is as good as any AFC team. At these odds….

Dallas-20:1 When you get to these odds, you typically are looking at teams that don’t have a realistic chance. Dallas does. If they can keep from beating themselves, from throwing away close losses, they will be in the playoffs. In the NFC playoffs, anything can happen.

Detroit-20:1 These odds aren’t that bad, but the road to the playoffs is going to be tough for Detroit. Playing in the league’s hardest division, and trying to get in as a second wildcard? Detroit will be back, but not in 2012.

Atlanta-22:1 Well this is a joke. What about this team would cause anyone to believe they have a shot?

NY Jets-22:1 These odds are bettable, if they get Peyton Manning. Cmon, the Jets were lucky to win as many as they did this year. This team is a distant third in its own division.

Chicago-30:1 Wait, what? The Bears, a top-5 team before they lost their qb, have worse odds than Atlanta, Detroit and the Jets? I would bet this now before the sharks hammer this line into shape. To get a team with a legit chance at 30:1, that’s rare.

Panthers-35:1
Chiefs-35:1
Titans-35:1
Dolphins-35:1 One of these teams is not like the other. One of these teams will make the playoffs in a weak conference. Yeah, it’s Miami, who looked as good as anyone in the AFC over the second half. That was before they might get Peyton Manning. I don’t think they win, but if you want a longshot in the AFC, you can’t beat the odds on Miami.

Season Wrapup/Early 2012 Pick

All Picks (120-78-3) 60.6%

Playoff Picks (10-1)

Honestly, I will likely never repeat this year. That percentage stands on its own, and I am really, really pleased with how this year went.

Early, 2012 Super Bowl Pick

Houston vs Chicago

Super Bowl Pick

All Picks (119-78-3)

Playoff Picks (9-1)

Giants +3 over Patriots

Round 3 Picks

All Picks (117-78-3)

Playoff Picks (7-1)

Ravens +9 over Patriots
Giants +1.5 over 49ers

Round Two Picks

All Picks (113-78-3)

Playoff Picks (3-1)

Houston +9 over Baltimore
Giants +10 over Packers
New England -13.5 over Denver
San Francisco +4 over New Orleans

Season Totals/Round One Picks

Super Contest (49-34-2) Tied for 16th

Well, hypothetically. This is just for fun, since I'm not entered.


All Picks (110-77-3) 59%

Obviously, a stellar year, the best since I started keeping track 4 years ago. What's crazier is how many of my losses involve San Diego, or Dallas. If I had stayed away from those.....

2011: 59%
2010: 54%
2009: 55%
2008: 58%

Playoff Picks (I will probably just pick all the games, and keep my record separate from the reg season.)

Detroit +11.5 over New Orleans
Denver +9 over Pittsburgh
Houston -2.5 over Cincinnati
New York -3 over Atlanta