I thought I'd weigh in on some Bills related news. Or at least some old news. TO is a Bill, and the effect is practically nil. I'm not moving TO's value at all. He is still a second tier guy with high risk and high reward. The presence of Evans on the opposite side could draw some attention away from Owens. It could also lead to a lot more balls going away from him. The factor for Owens is his age. Someone is likely to pay for his name, so I'm not targeting him in 09, but his value doesn't really drop with the move north.
Evans has a bump in value, which puts him back above zero in 2009. Perhaps he will be more consistent with less boom/bust. Not as much defensive focus on him and perhaps he'll be easier on fantasy owners as a consistent 3rd wr.
There is a bump to Edwards as well, but not enough that you should even be thinking of drafting him outside of a man's league.
In other Buffalo news, Lynch is heading towards a suspension. I'm starting to look more at him because of this. He will slip in drafts no matter how long the suspension is. If he can be picked up for cheap it is definitely worth sitting him through the suspension. Fantasy leagues aren't won in September.
Edit: The suspension is three games. I like the value in Fred Jackson now. He should perform well in his first three games. In a deeper legue where you can't get more than one sure thing, a nice strategy would be to take Jackson and play him the first three games while you find out which of your risk/reward players are going to contribute. Alternatively, if you ending up getting Lynch on the cheap, Jackson should probably be picked as well, since his best games will obviously be the games your star is missing.
Tuesday, March 31, 2009
Wednesday, March 4, 2009
First Moves - Housh and Ward
Houshmanzadeh to Seattle.
There isn't much impact on Housh himself. He is going from one bad offense to another; from one dependable but possibly washed up QB to another. His schedule gets significantly easier but as I've said before, schedules aren't as important to top notch receivers. Housmanzadeh receives a slight bump but remains securely in the second tier of receivers. What this does do, is take away any fantasy value from other Seahawks receivers. Previously you could take a flier on a Hawk that you thought would end up as the number one. Now none are draftable.
Ward to Tampa
This is an interesting move. Ward basically takes Graham's spot in the middle tier. I like him a little less than I liked Graham because I fear for Ward's durability. I'd put him at the end of the tier with Jamal Lewis. There is also the possibility that he splits a solid percentage of the carries. Graham's value obviously plummets but I still like him as a flier or early pickup. If Ward can't handle a full season, the opportunity to step up will be there for Graham again.
Broncos Backs
The assemblage of mediocre to poor running backs is quite confusing but does not give any confidence that the Broncos will ever settle on a guy. None inspire confidence and none are draftable. I'm not sure how Buckhalter, Arrington and Jordan and signifcantly better than Young, Hillis, Torrain, Hall, Pittman and whoever else played last year. They're all replacable backs that sadly for fantasy performances all have the capability of putting up a big day behind that outstanding line. Until we know who its going to be on a daily basis, there i sno real fantasy value there. Note: Arrington wouldn't have value behind the 90's Cowboys oline.
There isn't much impact on Housh himself. He is going from one bad offense to another; from one dependable but possibly washed up QB to another. His schedule gets significantly easier but as I've said before, schedules aren't as important to top notch receivers. Housmanzadeh receives a slight bump but remains securely in the second tier of receivers. What this does do, is take away any fantasy value from other Seahawks receivers. Previously you could take a flier on a Hawk that you thought would end up as the number one. Now none are draftable.
Ward to Tampa
This is an interesting move. Ward basically takes Graham's spot in the middle tier. I like him a little less than I liked Graham because I fear for Ward's durability. I'd put him at the end of the tier with Jamal Lewis. There is also the possibility that he splits a solid percentage of the carries. Graham's value obviously plummets but I still like him as a flier or early pickup. If Ward can't handle a full season, the opportunity to step up will be there for Graham again.
Broncos Backs
The assemblage of mediocre to poor running backs is quite confusing but does not give any confidence that the Broncos will ever settle on a guy. None inspire confidence and none are draftable. I'm not sure how Buckhalter, Arrington and Jordan and signifcantly better than Young, Hillis, Torrain, Hall, Pittman and whoever else played last year. They're all replacable backs that sadly for fantasy performances all have the capability of putting up a big day behind that outstanding line. Until we know who its going to be on a daily basis, there i sno real fantasy value there. Note: Arrington wouldn't have value behind the 90's Cowboys oline.
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