Week 3 Prospecting

San Fran pickem over Kansas City
Niners need to win now. If they play half as well as they did for three quarters against New Orleans this should be over by halftime.

Tennessee +3 over New York Giants
By the way they've both been playing, Titans shouldn't be getting points.

Indianapolis -6 over Denver
Are the Broncos better than the Giants? They aren't 20 points better.

Washington -3.5 over St Louis
No shame in losing to the Texans. This week will be a lot easier.

Detroit +11 over Minnesota
Lions are expert spread-coverers. Vikings haven't played well enough to warrant this spread.

Philadelphia -3 over Jacksonville

Last week 4-2
Overall 7-5
not pretty, dug myself quite the hole over the first two weeks, with my selected pick faring worse than my pucks overall.


Song of the week
Jackson Browne - The Pretender
Heard this song at the perfect moment on radio margaritaville. On a bike at dusk on an isolated stretch of hilly terrain. Perfect tempo and rhythm for the situation.

Mondays Minings

What we learned: Carolina-Tampa
So far, Carolina looks like the worst team in the league, and certainly the worst defense. I would consider almost any player in a matchup against the Panthers. Well, unless that player is Cadillac Williams. For Carolina's offense, we have confirmed that there aren't enough fantasy points to support two running backs. This is the reason why I avoided Williams and especially Stewart in drafts this fall. 3 yards/carry? 5o yards each? There isn't going to be a better matchup than this. You are probably stuck starting Williams but maybe you can trade him to someone who still thinks he has value. In no case should Stewart be started. The switch to Clause is probably good for Steve Smith, but he was going to produce anyways due to the SWAG'N theory.

What we learned Houston-Washington
The one weakness of the Texans is obviously the secondary. Has to be more than just the loss of Dunta Robinson. For the Skins, Portis is a play only against good matchups, but at least he is getting the bulk of the carries. Santana Moss should be a regular start, but noone else qualifies. Cooley benefited from the matchup but I don't think he should be used most weeks. Despite the loss Washington looks like a solid team, perhaps the class of the NFC East.

What we learned Indianapolis-New York
Felt like I was taking crazy pills when analyst after analyst thought the Giants were good, some picking them to win the decision. Well the pills have apparently worn off and the Giants exposed. The lone bright spot was pickup of the week, Mario Manningham. For the Colts a few things became clear. Wayne and Clark are the primary options. Collie and Garcon are the secondary targets. This is good new for Collie, as Anthony Gonzalez isn't seeing much time. Collie who was drafted well behind Garcon appears to be just as good a play, although there will be weeks when Garcon hits. Joseph Addai looks great and again received the bulk of the meaningful carries, the touchdown aside. Donald Brown struggled for most of the game, but put up better numbers in garbage time. Handcuff at best.

Fluke of the Week: Pittsburgh over Tennessee
Week 1 saw a bad Kansas City team beat the Chargers through a combination of special teams and luck. This week, the Steelers, though as incapable of creating drives as they were the previous week against Atlanta, beat the Titans with one kickoff return and one terrible officiating mistake. Yes, the Titans made seven turnovers, but some of those turnovers happened because the Titans were put in an uncomfortable situation. What we learned: Though Nate Washington got another touchdown, he is not a fantasy option, only racking up 34 yards despite the team being in a passing scenario all game. On the other side, the Steeler receivers are not going to be consistent plays either. It would be safe at the moment to start running backs against Tennessee, but not wideouts. The opposite is true for those matching up against Pittsburgh.

Quick Hits:
Either the Ravens defense is vulnerable to the run this year, or Benson is going to put up numbers.
Nice to see Desean Jackson putting up solid numbers. After 2 weeks, I believe all the top wrs have a 100+ TD game.
Sticking with the Eagles, Lesean McCoy is going to get enough carries to be useful. If someone thinks he is selling high after this week, it might the time to swing a trade.
The NFC west could possibly be won at 6-10. Any of the four might come in last in the AFC west.
Can you still get anything for Jamal Charles or Jerome Harrison? their value has been submarined by their backups.
Everyone was scared to say how bad Peterson looked last year, he looks like 2008 vintage so far this fall. Too bad the team is now so bad around him.
Jermichael Finley looks uncoverable.
Seattle run defense may just be good.
Poor Randy Moss got stuck on Cromartie Island. Yes, he is the first to be stuck there.


Sell High Don't Buy
Jahvid Best RB Lions - Lots of touchdowns and a lot of garbage time action. 20 yards week 1. 3 yards/carry week 2. A lot of receiving yardage and one big run as the Lions lit up the board after the Eagles shut it down.
Kyle Orton QB Broncos - Yards have piled up, but look at the slate of opponents.
Mark Sanchez QB Jets - Looked good this week, Carson Palmer looked good against the Pats too.
Mike Tolbert RB Chargers - Not going to happen again, count on that.

Buy Low
Felix Jones RB Cowboys - It has looked bad so far, but better days will come. And weaker opponents.
Larry Fitzgerald WR Cardinals - In case his owner panics. He will rebound and put up top 1 numbers. Remember SWAG'N.

Eye Don't Buy:
Brandon Pettigrew TE Lions - I liked Pettigrew last year and for the future, but with two tight ends on the Lions, it will be tough to start him this year. But if you have an empty spot....

Pickups
Machine Murphy WR Raiders - Bruce loves him, so do I.
Josh Morgan WR 49ers - How was he undrafted while Crabtree was a 5th rounder?


Note: Though I never referred to it by acronym before, I have long used the theory that Stud Wideouts Always Get Numbers.(SWAG'N) This means that the top receivers will end up putting up points even in a bad situation, with bad quarterbacks or against tough matchups. For example, see Andre Johnson on some bad Texans teams a few years ago.

Week 2 Prospecting

Titans -5 over Steelers
Pittsburgh struggled to move the ball against Atlanta and Dennis Dixon is not strong in the pocket. The way Jason Jones has been tearing through the line, this spells a disaster.

Packers -13.5 over Bills
This should be a slaughter.

Panthers -3 over Bucs
Panthers coming off a disappointing loss host the Bucs who were lucky to beat Cleveland.

Chargers -8 over Jaguars
San Diego is at home and should look to rebound from a humiliating loss. JAX is likely not very good.

Colts -4.5 over Giants

Raiders -3 over Rams

Texans -1 over Redskins

Last Week 3-3

Song of the Week: Jimmy Buffett - Far Side of the World, Live in Hawaii version
Overlooked because the original, album version is so bad. Like many Jimmy songs, this one is much better with the new arrangement used live.

Mondays Minings

Colts-Texans What We Learned
The take here is not to get too carried away. The Texans will throw more in the future and the Colts will run more. Houston will not always be nursing a lead against a team with such an imbalance in the quality of run/pass defense. The Colts will probably rarely be playing from behind. Foster at this point looks like a top 12 back. I said this winter that the Texans were a running back and a kicker away from being 11-5. They appear to have found both those things. On the other side we learned a few things. The Colts will be a good team to run against. Pierre Garcon was vastly overrated, he is a solid option but his numbers will end up closer to Austin Collie than to Reggie Wayne. Joseph Addai looked the best he has in years in his limited touches. With Donald Brown failing to make an appearance, Addai is another top 12 back.

Eagles-Packers What We Learned
The Packers look like the class of the NFC right now but if the Packers don't make the Super Bowl it will be because the defense lets them down. The offense is clicking and whoever the running back is, Ryan Grant or Brandon Jackson, is a must start. Switching sides, Lesean McCoy will be just fine, operating in both phases of the offense with 80 all-purpose yards. No matter what happens, Kolb's status is in trouble, I don't foresee a situation where Vick doesn't take at least some of the snaps. Drop him.

49ers-Seahawks What We Learned
Hopefully, not much. I've seen this before, team comes out and dominates inferior team but fails to put points on the board. Then fluke play occurs(in this case the 35 yard pass to the one after doing nothing on offense or defense for 25 minutes) and the momentum swings. If as in this case, the better team is put in a bad position, as the Niners were by having to play catch up and keep the ball in Alex Smiths hands, it can get out of hand. That said, neither the young Niners line nor Frank Gore looked good in the running game. Hopefully this is just a case of rookie linemen finding their roles but there is legitimate concern here. As for the Seahawks, I'm not buying anyone. I still think the Niners win this decision, but the next few weeks could be tough.


Bills-Dolphins Quick Hits
Bills are the best week 1 team of all time.
Confirmation- You want no part of a Buffalo running back, no matter how good Spiller was in college.
Marshall didn't put up big yardage but with 8 catches, he is clearly going to find the same success he had in Denver.

Bears-Lions Quick Hits
Get use to it Cutler deniers. He will finish in the top 8. Lions were slaughtered everywhere but on the scoreboard. Take away two receiver fumbles and this game is a blowout.
Fools who drafted Jahvid Best were rewarded this week, but the 2 TDs are the fluke and the 20 yards show the quality of the pick. He'll do better than that but will you ever be comfortable starting him.
Losing Stafford is the best thing for Calvin Johnson. Megatron does better with a qb that just hucks it up rather than trying to find an open guy. Thus his numbers were better in 08 than 09 and immediately became a larger presence after Stafford went down last night. Buy low.

Rams Cardinals Quick Hits
Mark Clayton might be the pickup of the week after Brandon Jackson. He has done it before, has solidly put up at least 500 yards each year since 06. The Rams will be behind and throwing often, despite a schedule of soft defenses.

Pickups
Brandon Jackson RB Packers - see above
Mark Clayton WR Rams - see above
Mario Manningham WR Giants - not that much less a threat than Steve Smith or Nicks
Mike Vick QB Eagles- see above
Mike Thomas WR Jaguars - maybe if you don't trust MSW

Don't Buy/Pickup
Hakeem Nicks WR Giants - Manningham actually had the most yards, the touchdowns are fluky.
Nate Washington WR Titans - Raiders always give up big games to second receivers
Peyton Hillis RB Browns - Just why? Would you start him if he got all the carries? No. No place on roster.
Brandon Lloyd WR Broncos - Jaguars are not a good defense. Royal only Bronc that should be on a bench.
Steve Breaston WR Cardinals - One of two games this year where he outplays Fitzgerald, you don't want to start him in the rest.
Anyone who scored without putting up yardage.
Mike Williams WR Seahawks

Week 1 Prospecting

This is a new feature at the mines where I pick 5 or 6 games a week. Additionally, there will be a song of the week, either something that I hear on xm radio that I hadn't heard before or something I never fully appreciated before. What does this have to do with picks or fantasy football? Nothing, but I'm going to do it anyways.

Miami -3 over Buffalo

San Francisco -2.5 over Seattle

Green Bay -5 over Philadelphia

Chicago -7 over Detroit

Baltimore +1.5 over New York Jets

San Diego -4.5 ove Kansas City


Song of the Week

Lord Kitchener - Nora

Team Prospects

Buffalo-Under 5.5 wins
After 6 wins last year, the team is still a mess. Against a tough schedule, they will have a tough time getting back to 6.

Chicago-Over 8 wins
They won 7 last year and absolutely everything went wrong. This year the oline can only play better. The defense is bolstered by Peppers and Urlacher.

Cincinnati-Over 8 wins
This is a team that won 10 games last year, despite suffering a rash of injuries on defense over the last few weeks. After a disastrous playoff performance by the second string defense, the hate has gone too far.

Cleveland-Under 5.5 wins
They won 5 last year, they won't top that against what may be the toughest schedule in the league. They also plan to play Jake Delhomme at quarterback.

Denver-Under 7 wins
This team finished 2-6 down the stretch. Since then, they have lost their best player on each side of the ball. The schedule is easy but that won't be enough.

Houston-Over 8 wins
8-8 last year and lost 4 games because of missed chip shots and goal line fumbles. Those problems have been fixed.

Jacksonville-Under 7 wins
Division is too tough and they aren't any better than the 7-9 team we saw last year.

Miami-Over 8.5 wins
Things seem to be in place for Miami, who will need to improve on last year's seven to win the division. They added a top talent at a position of dire need.

New York Jets-Under 9.5 wins
The Jets, a 500 team last year, won't top that win total against this murderer's row schedule unless two more teams lay down for them at the end.

Oakland-Over 6.5 wins
The schedule is too easy for them not to top this. They won 5 last year and made a big improvement at the most important position.

Pittsburgh-Under 9 wins
9-win team with Big Ben last year. How have they improved? Starting out 1-3 won't help them get back to 9.

San Diego-Over 11 wins
Won 13 last year and face the easiest schedule in the NFL. Improved running game as well.

Tennessee-Over 8.5 wins
The opposite of Denver, this team won 8 last year after tossing the first 6. They should top 8 by playing all 16.

Tampa-Under 5.5 wins
Not a lot of wins on this schedule for a team that has so little on both sided of the ball.

Washington-Over 7.5 wins
The biggest jump from 4 wins, but they made the most improvements.

Now the teams that I stake my claim on.

Green Bay-Over 10 wins
In position to be the class of the NFC. They aren't going down from last year's 11-5. 14 wins is more likely than 9.

San Francisco-Over 8.5 wins
This is cake, 8-8 last year and going up against an NFC easiest schedule. Throw in a full year of Alex Smith and a potentially healthy Gore, and SF gets 9 in their sleep.



For posterity, here's the rest of the league.
Arizona- 7.5 from 10
Atlanta-9 from 9
Baltimore-10 from 9
Carolina-7.5 from 8
Dallas-10 from 11
Detroit-5 from 2
Indianapolis-11 from 14
Kansas City-6.5 from 4
Minnesota-9.5 from 12
New England-9.5 from 10
New Orleans-10.5 from 13
New York Giants-8.5 from 8
Philadelphia-8.5 from 11
Seattle- 7 from 5
St Louis-4.5 from 1

For kicks, division winners

Miami
Baltimore
Indy
San Diego
Dallas
Green Bay
New Orleans
San Francisco

Made my super bowl pick in February and I'm sticking with it, even though everyone seems to be jumping on the bandwagon. Green Bay-Indianapolis.

Wide Receiver Preview

Tier 0

1. Andre Johnson-Texans WR1-Average Pick 7(1)
Andre Johnson is in a class by himself among receivers this year. Typically, one receiver goes into the year with a bulk of hype and gets drafted way too soon. For example, Larry Fitzgerald was taken in the top six or seven picks last year, even though you could get someone of his tier in the late second. This year is the exception. AJ is the reigning points leader, and is situation has improved. The running game in Houston can only improve. Less drives killed by second and 12 means more points for Johnson. As part of an improved offense that is already one of the best in the league, Johnson's value is unprecedented among receivers. After the first tier of backs, there is absolutely nothing wrong with picking Andre Johnson.

Tier 1

Receivers are traditionally less risky than backs. Moreover, there are fewer good receivers this year than usual. The top wideouts are pretty obvious and you can't do wrong with any of them. The first tier is separated by thin margins and all of them are solid choice with small chance of disappointing you. I'd start looking at them in the mid-second. A very nice strategy, if you end up with a high pick, is to take two of these guys in the second and third rounds. With all the running backs available in the fourth and fifth, a foundation of Ray Rice, Miles Austin and Greg Jennings looks mighty fine. Low risk, and plenty of reward.

2. Miles Austin-Cowboys WR1-Average Pick 23(8)
Established number one option on a good offense that can go deep. Absolutely no reason to expect Austin to fail to repeat his last-year success.

3. Brandon Marshall-Dolphins WR1-Average Pick 19(5)
Some people are worried about Marshall's transition to Miami, but here's the thing. He is going to a better offense. He is going to a team that can run the ball and keep drives alive. If he can light up with Kyle Orton, he can put up numbers with Chad Henne.

4. Reggie Wayne- Colts WR1-Average Pick 16(4)
Number one target for Peyton Manning. As long as Wayne is on the field, he will score points. The floor is set high here.

5. Larry Fitzgerald-Cardinals WR1-Average Pick 14(3)
Still one of the top three talents, and as I've always said, top receivers get numbers in bad situations. But without Warner, I can't pick him ahead of guys with more secure situations. UPDATE: Moving down with injury news, Jennings and White definitively ahead of him now.

6. Greg Jennings-Packers WR1-Average Pick 28(10)
I'm coming in high here but I think Jennings' value merits it. He will be the top target for the top offense. Two years ago he was a surprise(sorta) fantasy star. Last year reality sunk in a bit and Driver grabbed a larger share of the touchdowns. This year Jennings becomes the receiver he really is and establishes himself as a perennial top fantasy pick.

7. Roddy White-Falcons WR1-Average Pick 22(7)
Got it done last year, he will do it again. Unless something changes, pick him here next year and the year after as well.

8. Desean Jackson-Eagles WR1-Average Pick 26(9)
Suffers a a qb change, but we saw him in action with Kolb last year and I have to say I liked what I saw. A deep threat that can produce 6 at any time, DJax is going to get numbers.

Tier 1.5

9. Vincent Jackson-Chargers WR1-Average Pick 58(20)
A special case because he is missing three games. His overall numbers will of curse suffer but beyond that, Jackson will produce. When drafting him, remember, he is going to be there during the fantasy playoffs, when it matters. If you think you can get through the first few weeks and still make the playoffs, then go ahead and take him.

Tier 2A

Tier 2 guys have the opportunity to produce at the level of the first tier receivers. There are just some lingering questions, and they are much less of a sure thing.

10. Randy Moss-Patriots WR1-Average Pick 11(2)
While possessing the ability to finish top 5, I don't trust Moss in the event that the season turns downhill for the Patriots. A documented history of zero-effort season combined with advancing age makes me shy away from Moss well past the point where I could possibly draft him.

11. Calvin Johnson-Lions WR1-Average Pick 21(6)
The downside for CJ is what we saw last season. But with more experience at the qb position, the Lions should be good enough for Calvin to get his numbers. Stafford season 2 should produce at least well as previous Lions signal callers who allowed Calvin to be a fantasy force.

12. Sydney Rice-Vikings WR1-Average Pick 49(16)
Rice may be taken down by a failing Viking offense. There will be fewer touchdown catches overall and Rice should suffer. He does not yet have the track record that gives me faith he can still score during a team slump. UPDATE: Rice is actually a value now that he is dropping due to Favre retirement rumors.

13. Marques Colston-Saints WR1-Average Pick 21(11)
A bit of an oddball in this mix, with a lower ceiling and higher floor. He is a risk primarily because of how much the Saints spread it around. Still he is the only Saint I trust at all to get his share, and on a great offense, points will go to WR1.

Tier 2B

The tier is split because the last three have just a few more questions. In the end, they makeup the last group of wideouts that I feel comfortable with. These guys could regain their form but I'm not banking on it. While I'd rather take one of them than someone without a proven track record. All the more reason to get two top tier guys and use picks in this range on running backs. There are enough prospects in the later rounds that you can draft three guys with potential to be a third wr.

14. Steve Smith-Carolina WR 1-Average Pick 33(12)
The issue with Smith is that he did not produce last year and he is on the wrong side of 30. On the bright side, he played much better with Moore than with Delhomme. With Moore at the helm for the whole year, Smith could be alright.

15. Anquan Boldin-Ravens WR1-Average Pick 36(13)
Like Smith, Boldin has been disappointing owners recently. He also has struggled to stay healthy and is joining a new team with a qb that may not mesh with his style. Still, he has all the talent necessary for a big year and will welcome a running game that take the pressure off the receivers.

16. Chad Ochocinco-Bengals WR1-Average Pick 41(14)
Actually did alright last year and is part of a team that should still be decent. I don't think TO makes much of an impact but I worry about his ability to put up huge numbers. Why is he part of this tier? Because I have no doubt he puts up decent second-third receiver numbers.

Tier 3

From here on out, you are looking at unproven or declining players. If you didn't get two of the above receivers, you did something wrong. More than likely, you are looking for one more starter. The best solution is take two or three that have potential.

17. Michael Crabtree-49ers WR1-Average Pick 51(16)
Despite an inordinate amount of hype, Crabtree has never really done anything. He played decently at the end of the year, but not number 2 fantasy receiver good. To think he is more than a risk/reward pick is foolish. But, as I'm high on Alex Smith, and high on the Niners, he is my favorite risk/reward pick.

18. Santana Moss-Redskins WR1-Average Pick 78(28)
After one of the most up and down careers we have ever seen, Moss remains a fantasy enigma. He has practically always provided feat or famine, alternating 200-yard games with 2-catch stinkers. However, he enters 2010 with the best quarterback he has ever had and personally I think their styles will work well together. McNabb excels at the deep ball and Moss catches nothing but.

19. Donald Driver-Packers WR2-Average Pick 64(23)
The risk with Driver is that the wheels fall off. He isn't getting older and last year could have been a final hurrah. But he is worth a risk because, he put up numbers last year and is part of an offense with serious power. Even as the number two, there may be enough touchdowns going around to make Driver an every-week starter.

20. Mike Sims-Walker-Jaguars WR1-Average Pick 50(17)
MSW is, as Mrs. Larusso would call it, up-and-coming. He put up some big numbers last year, amidst overall inconsistency. He has a chance to establish himself as a bonafide starter as the only legitimate option on a struggling offense.

21. TJ Houshmandzadeh-Seahawks WR1-Average Pick 80(29)
The risk is a repeat of last year, stuck on an offense that failed to move the ball or put up touchdowns. He remains a talented receiver who has done it before and if the Seahawks can improve a little, Housh may prove a starter once again. In reality, it probably cannot be worse than last year, and TJ still had decent yardage.

22. Steve Smith-Giants WR1-Average Pick 42(15)
Although Smith put up high yardage last year, there are some doubts about his ability to repeat. Many are high on Nicks, and while I have doubts about him as well, his presence is enough to cause concern. Moreover, one year is not enough of a history to consider Smith a proven commodity. The upside is, obviously, that he puts up another 1,200 yards.

23. Pierre Garcon-Colts WR2-Average Pick 70(24)
Like the Packers, the Colts have a good enough offense to support two receivers. And like the Packers, I think the number two option for the Colts is set in stone. Anthony Gonzalez may challenge Austin Collie for the third spot, but Garcon is a lock to be opposite Reggie Wayne. There is also a chance, and here is the upside, that Garcon becomes Wayne to Wayne's Harrison.

Aversion Tier-Highly rated receivers to avoid

Percy Harvin-Vikings WR2-Average Pick 92(32)
With the dip in Viking production, Harvin is the casualty in terms of fantasy relevance. No longer a team that can support gimmicky utility men.

Robert Meacham-Saints WR-Average Pick 90(31)
I absolutely don't trust any Saints besides Colston. IN the past, I've championed Meacham as a deep sleeper because of his ability to get deep and place on a top offense, but as mid-round pick, he is far too much of a gamble.

Hines Ward-Steelers WR1 and Mike Wallace-Steelers WR2-Picks 58(19) and 80(27)
If one of these two were “the guy” I might be willing to take them. That uncertainty, combined with Ward's age and Wallace's unproven record makes me shy away. And also, there is that Big Ben suspension.

Guys that will put up decent numbers but with little chance to put big numbers. You aren't looking for steady, dependable bench guys. You want guys with a chance to start. While most of these players will put up an occasional big game, you won't be able to predict it.


Dwayne Bowe-Chiefs WR1-59(20)
Wes Welker-Patriots WR2-61(22)
Hakeem Nicks-Giants-WR2-75(25)
Braylon Edwards-Jets WR3-88(30)
Dez Bryant-Cowboys WR2-91(31)
Steve Breaston-Cardinals WR2-97(35)
Lee Evans-Bills WR1-105(37)
Jerricho Cotchery-Jets WR2-126(39)
Derrick Mason-Ravens WR2-127(40)
Devery Henderson-Saints WR-138(47)
Austin Collie-Colts WR3-141(48)

Tier 4

So who do you pick once those first 23 are gone? Well, luckily you have three of them already. That isn't too difficult as several of them are being draft much lower than 23. But once they are gone, you are looking for sleepers that could turn into a starter.

Devin Aromashadu (136(45)) and Johnnie Knox(107(38))-Bears WR1 and WR2

The Bears will be back and one of these two will break out. Which is still up in the air. Aromashadu put up some highlights at the end of last year. Knox has looked good so far this summer. Either would be a good choice as a 4th receiver with upside.

Santonio Holmes-Jets WR1-Average Pick 101(36)
Misses a few games early but this follows the Vincent Jackson rule; he will be there at the end. He is the most talented of the Jets receivers and will establish himself as the go-to guy by the fantasy playoffs.

Malcolm Floyd-Chargers WR2-Average Pick 132(42)
Great value for the first three weeks during Vincent Jackson's suspension, but possesses value of his own as the number guy in a top offense facing an easy schedule.

Jeremy Maclin-Eagles WR1-Average Pick 77(27)
Value as the potential go-to for the Eagles, who should continue to move the ball. Being drafted fairly highly for a sleeper at the moment.

Kenny Britt-Titans WR1-Average Pick 122(39)
Should be the number one option in Tennessee.


Deeper Sleepers

Chaz Schilens, Louis Murphy and Darrius Heyward-Bey-Raiders
One of these three could end up worthwhile. Based on the end of last year, I'm gravitating towards Murphy.

Arrelious Benn and Mike Williams-Bucs
I liked Benn after the draft, as there is always room for one big target on a bad team. So far in the preseason, Williams has been more impressive.

Josh Morgan-49ers WR2
Very good value this deep as Crabtree is no sure thing and Morgan could end up as the top wideout on a playoff team.

Jacoby Jones-Texans WR2
If Jones can hold off Kevin Walter and establish himself as the second option, there are enough points for in the high-flying Texan offense.

Devin Thomas-Redskins WR2
Like him as a red zone target in the new Redskin offense.

Mohammad Massaquoi-Browns WR1
Was an inconsistent threat last year. Has the possibility of becoming a consistent target this year.